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T.  FISHER 


TEE  “liPATinMyjf  INTIEir 


A STUDY  OF  THE  CAUSES 


DETEItMlNlNG  THE  HATE  OF  INTEHEST 


Estratto  da  SCIENTIA  „ Scieiiza 

VOD.  IX.  ANNO  V (1911),  XVIII-^ 


HOLOGNA 

NICOLA  ZANICHELLI 

LONDON 

PARIS 

LEIPZIG 

WILLIAMS  AND  NORGATB 

FELIX  ALCAN 

WILHELM  ENGELMANN 

“SCIENTIA,, 

(RIVISTA  D1  SGIENZA) 

iiileniazioiiale  di  siiitesi  scifiitilita  - IJcviie  iiileriiatioiiale  do  syniliose  scieiitiliqiii' 
liitcViiatioiial  I’levicw  of  Scientific  Syiilliesis  - Internationale  Zeitsclirift  fiir  wisseiiscliaftliclie  Syiitliese 

IDII^KCTIOIM  : 

G.  J3IIUNI  - A.  Dionisi  - F.  Enkiques  - A.  Giakdina  - E.  Eigxaxo 


^^SCIJEWTIA,,  a ete  fondee  eii  vue  de  contrebalancer  le 
faclieiix  effets  de  la  specialisation  scientilique  a outraiice.  Elle 
lie  traite  qne  des  sujets  d’  ordre  tout  a fait  general  et  vise  sur- 
tout  aux  rapports  qui  unissent  les  diff^rentes  sciences  entre  elles: 
elle  tend  par  la  a la  sintlietisation  et  unification  de  la  science. 
Par  ses  Articles  se  rapportant  aux  branches  les  plus  diverses  de 
la  recherche  theorique,  depuis  les  mathematiques  jusqu’a  la  socio- 
log'ie,  par  ses  JSAtes  Critiques  sur  les  questions  fondamentales  le 
plus  a I’ordre  du  jour,  par  ses  Comptes  Bendus  de  tons  les  ouvra- 
ges  scientifiques  d’inter^t  general,  iiar  ses  Bevues  Generales  des 
derniers  progres  dans  chaque  branche  de  la  science,  par  ses  Ana- 
lyses des  articles  les  plus  iniportants  x^arus  sur  les  autres  x^rinci- 
paux  periodiques  de  tout  le  monde,  x^^i*  sa  Chronique  des  Congres 
et  de  tous  les  autres  evenements  de  haute  imxiortance  scientifique, 
— elle  cherche  en  outre  a doiiner  I’idee  la  x^lus  complete  de  I’en- 
semble  du  mouvement  scientifique  contemx)orain. 

SCIEJVTIA  „ fait  ax^pel,  pour  le  developx^ement  de  son 
X^rogramme,  a la  cooperation  des  autorites  scientifiques  les  plus 
6minentes  de  tous  les  x>ays.  L’  accueil  favorable  qu’  elle  a rencontre 
aux)res  de  celles-ci,  la  collaboration  tout-a-fait  internationale  et 
de  x^i'emier  ordre  qu’  elle  a reussi  a s’  assurer,  et  la  diffusion  si 
large  qu’elle  a gagnee  en  x>eu  de  temx^s  dans  tout  le  monde  out 
demontre  combien  son  x^i'ogramme  corresx^ondait  a un  vrai  besoin 
du  monde  savant  actuel. 

SCIENTIA  „ articles  dans  la  langue  de  leurs 

auteurs.  Mais  dex^uis  Janvier  1909  au  texte  pi'iiicipal  est  joint 
un  supplement  avec  la  traduction  fran^aise  de  tous  les 
articles  orUfinaux  allemands,  anglais  et  italiens.  Toutes 
les  autres  rubriques  sont  en  franqais  on,  elles  aussi,  traduites  en 
franqais. 

4 livraisons  par  an  de  280  a 300  pages  chaciine 


(Pour  les  renseignements  aux  auteurs  . < . ■ :■  r— 

;■ et  les  aboHnements  voir  la  page  3 de  la  couverture) 


Anno  - Annee 
Jahr  - Year 


1- IV -1911 


SCIENTIA,, 

(RIVISTA  DI  SCIENZA) 

Organo  internazionalc  di  sinlesi  scientilica  - Revue  inlernationale  de  synth&e  scientifique 
Intepuational  Review  of  Scientific  Synthesis  - Internationale  Zeitschrift  flir  wissenschaftliche  Synthese 

INDEX 

F.  Eiiriciues  - II  prohlema  della  realtd  - (Le  prohleme  de  la  realite). 

H Poincare  - L"  evolution  des  lois. 

(ir.  Celoria  - 11  opera  di  Giovanni  Schiaparelli  - (L’ oeuvre  de  Giovanni  Sehiaparelli ). 
L.  De  Marchi  - J^uove  teorie  sulle  cause  delV  era  glaciale  - (Nouvelles  theories 
relatives  aux  causes  de  V ere  glaciaire). 

E.  S.  Russell  - Vitalism  - {Le  vitalisme). 

Oil.  S.  Sherrington  - The  « role  » of  reflex  inhibition  - (Le  role  de  V inhibi- 
tion reflexej. 

W.  Ostwald  - Der  Wille  and  seine  physisehe  Grundlegung  - (La  volonte  et  sa 
base  physique). 

I.  Fisher  - The  « imqyatience  » theory  of  interest  - ( Tine  theorie  de  V interSt 
fondee  sur  V impatience). 

A.  Meillet  - Diferenciation  et  unification  dans  les  langues. 

S.  Arrhenius*  - Tiber  den  Ursprmig  des  Gestirnlmltus  - ( Sur  V origine  du 
cuUe  des  astres). 

Nota  critica  - Note  critique  - Kritische  Notiz  - Critical  note. 

A.  Fraenkel  - Le  calcul  de  la  date  de  Pdques. 

Recensioni  - Gomptes  reiidiis  - Referate  - Book  Reviews. 

Battelli,  Occhialini  et  Ohella,  La  radioacUvite  et  la  constitution  de  la 
matiere  (R.  De  Baillehache)  — E.  HauGt,  Traite  de  geologic.  Les  periodes  geologi- 
ques  (E.  Repossi)  — J.  Duolaux,  La  chimie  de  la  matiere  vivante  (F.  Bottazzi)  — 
H.  Pringsheim,  Lie  Variabilitdt  niederer  Organismen.  Line  Descend enzthcorie 
(H.  Pieron)  — H.  Ebbinghaus,  Precis  de  psyehologie  (J.  Aiizolat)  — A.  Binet, 
Les  idees  modernes  sur  les  enfants  (Z.  Treves)  — L.  Reinhardt,  Der  Mensch 
zur  Liszeit  in  Europa  und  seine  Kulturcntwichlung  bis  zum  Ende  der  Steinzeit 
(R.  3Iaunier)  — T.  Somlo,  Der  Giltcrvcrhehr  in  der  Urgesellschaft  (E.  Savor- 
gnan) — A.  VAN  Gennep,  La  formation  des  legendes  (R.  Bourgin)  — W.  Me. 
Dougall,  A7i  Introduction  to  social  Psychology  (Ch.  Delisle  Burns). 

Rassegne  - Revues  ge'nerales  - Allg.  Uebersicliteii  - Gen.  Reviews. 

Geologie:  M.  Rortani  - Les  raeines  des  montagnes. 

Biologie:  A.  Prenant  - Questions  de  biologie  cellulaire.  La  substance  hereditaire. 
Flcoiiomique : W.  Oualid  - Revue  annuelle : questions  generates , distribution, 
consommation,  population,  flnanees. 

Riv.  delle  Riv.  - Revue  des  Revues  - Zeitschr.  Umscliau  - Review  of  Reviews. 

Gronaca-  Ghronique  - Glironik  - Glironicle:  (Co7igres  et  reunions  - Nouvelles  diverses). 

BOLOGNA 

NICOLA  ZANICHELLI 

LONDON  PARIS  LEIPZIG 

WILLIAMS  AND  NORGATE  FELIX  ALCAN  WILHELM  ENGELMAN 


Direzione  e Redazione:  Milano,  Via  Aurelio  Saffi,  11. 


Articles  deja  publife  par  “SCIENTIA 


Abegg,  R.  (Breslaiij:  Chemische  Affimtiit,  Valenz  iind  das  natiirliche  System  der 
Elemente  (L’ciffinite  chimique,  la  valence  et  le  systeme  naturel  des  elements). 
Arrhenius,  S.  (Stockholm):  Die  Unendlickheit  der  Welt  (L’  univers  infini). 

— iiher  den  TTrsprunq  des  Gestirnhultus  (Sur  V origine  du  culte  des  astres). 

Asher,  L.  (Bern):  Die  Bezielmngen  zwisclien  StruMur  und  Ftmklion  im  tierischen 

Organismus  (Les  relations  de  la  structnre  et  la  fonction  dans  I’organisme  animal). 
Bayliss,  W.  M.  (London):  The  functions  of  enzymes  in  vital  processes  (Les  fonctions 
des  enzymes  dans  les  processus  vitaux). 

Becher,  S.  (Giessen) : Uber  Handlungsreaktionen  und  Hire  Becleutung  fiir  das  Ver- 
sUindnis  der  organischen  Zweckmdssigkeit  (Sur  les  reacfions-actes  et  leur  signi- 
fication pour  P intelligence  de  la  finalite  organique). 

Bethe,  A.  (Strassbnrg) : Neuere  Vorstellungen  uber  die  Natur  der  bio-elektrischen 
Strbme  (Les  idees  moclernes  sur  la  nature  des  courants  bio-electriques). 

Bohlin,  K.  (Stockholm):  TTas  ist  die  Milclistrasse  f (Qu’est-ce  que  la  voie  lactee  ?). 
Bohn,  G.  (Paris) : Le  psychisme  cJiez  les  animaux  inferieurs. 

Bonar,  J.  (Ottawa-Canada) : Home  trade  and  foreign  trade  (Commerce  inter ieur  et 
commerce  international). 

Boiinesen,  T.  (Kopenhagen) : La  reforme  de  P enseignement  des  mathematiques  ele- 
mentaires. 

Borel,  (Paris):  Le  continu  mathematique  et  le  continu  physique. 

Bortkiewicz,  L.  (Berlin):  Die  statistischen  Generalisationen  (Les  generalisafions 
statistiques). 

Bottazzi,  F.  (Napoli):  La  cliimica  fisica  e la  fisiologia  (Chimie  physique  et physiologie). 
Boruttau,  H.  (Berlin):  Die  inner e Sekretion  (La  secretion  interne). 

Bouasse,  H.  (Toulouse):  Developpement  historique  des  theories  de  la  physique. 
Boutroux,  P.  (Poitiers):  L^  evolution  des  mathematiques  pures. 

Brunhes,  B.  (Clermont  Ferrand) : La  diversity  de  fortune  des  deux  principes  de  la 
thermodynamique. 

Bruni,  G.  (Padova):  Le  soluzioni  solide  (Les  solutions  solides). 

— La  chimica  fisica  nei  suoi  rapporti  con  le  scienze  biologiche  (La  chimie  physique 

dans  ses  rapports  avec  les  sciences  biologiques). 

Bryan,  G.  H.  (Bangor):  Diffusion  and  dissipation  of  energy  (Diffusion  et  dissipation 
de  P energie). 

Carver,  T.  N.  (Cambridge  - U.  S.  A.):  The  english  classical  school  of  political  eco- 
nomy (L’ ecole  classique  anglaise  d’  economic  politique). 

— Diminishing  returns  and  value  (Diminution  du  rendement  et  de  la  valeur). 
Castelnuovo,  G.  (Roma):  II  valore  didattico  della  matematiea  e della  fisica  (La 

valeur  didactique  des  mathematiques  et  de  la  physique). 

— II  principio  di  relativitd  e i fenomeni  ottici  {Le  principe  de  relativite  et  les  pheno- 
menes  optiques). 

Caullery,  M.  (Paris):  La  methode  et  les  criteres  de  la  morphologie. 

Celoria,  G.  (Milano):  L’ opera  di  Giovanni  Schiaparelli  (IP  ceuvre  de  Giovanni 
Schiaparelli  ). 

Chwolson,  0.  (St.  Petersbourg) : Diirfen  wir  die  physikalischen  Gesetze  auf  das 
Universum  anwendenf  (Beut-on  appliquer  les  lois  de  la  physique  a P Univers  f). 
Ciamician,  G.  (Bologna):  Problemi  e metodi  della  chimica  organica  (Problemes  et 
methodes  de  la  chimie  organique). 

Claparede,  E.  (Geneve):  La  fonction  du  sommeil. 

Crommelin,  A.  C.  D.  (Greenwich):  The  origin  and  nature  of  comets  (Origine  et 
nature  des  comet es). 

Cunningham,  W.  (Cambridge  - England):  Impartiality  in  history  (IP  impartialite 
de  P historien). 

Darwin,  G.  H.  (Cambridge  - England!:  The  rigidity  of  the  earth  (La  rigid ite  de 
la  Terre). 

Delage,  Y.  (Paris):  La  parthenogenese  experimental  et  les  proprietes  des  solution.^ 
electrolytiques. 

De  Marchi,  L,  (Padova):  Che  cos’ e la  Terra?  (QiP  est-ce  que  la  Terre?). 

— Teorie  geologiche : come  si  formano  le  montagne  (Theories  geologiques : comment 

se  forment  les  montagnes). 

— Nuove  teorie  sulle  cause  delP  era  glaciate  (Xourelles  theories  relatives  aux  causes 

de  P ere  glaciaire). 


l>emoor,  J.  (Bruxelles):  A propos  dii  mecanisme  des  phemomenes  d’  irritabilite. 
Diouisi,  A.  (Modena):  H concetto  di  malattia  (Le  concept  de  maladie). 

Doelter,  C.  (Wien):  Die  Anwendung  der  physihalischen  Ghemie  auf  Mineralogie  und 
Geolog ie  (La  chimie  physique  appliquee  d la  mineralogie  et  a la  geologie). 
Driesch,  H.  (Heidelberg):  Die  Physiologie  der  individuellen  organischen  Formbildung 
(La  physiologie  du  developpement  de  la  forme  organique  individuelle). 

£bstein,  W.  (Gottingen):  Zur  Geschichte  der  EntmicTclung  des  KranLlieitsbegriffes 
(Pour  V histoire  du  concept  de  maladie). 

£dding^ton,  A.  S.  (Greenwich):  Star-Streams  (Les  courants  stellaires). 

Edg^e worth,  F.  Y.  (Oxford):  On  the  use  of  differential  calculus  in  economics  (De 
I’  usage  du  calcul  differ entiel  en  economie  politique). 

Enriques,  F.  (Bologna):  Heterodox  science  and  ist  social  function  (La  science  hete- 
rodoxe  et  sa  fonction  soeiale). 

- Le  principe  d’  inertie  et  les  dynamiques  non-newtoniennes. 

— L’  universitd  italiana  (L’  universite  italienne). 

— La  riforma  dell’ universitd  italiana  (La  reforme  de  I’ universite  italienne). 

— 11  principio  di  ragion  sufficiente  nella  costrusione  scientifica  (Le  principe  de 

raison  suffisante  dans  la  construction  scientifique) . 

— Pazionalismo  e storicismo  (Bationalisme  et  historisme). 

--  La  teoria  dello  stato  e il  sistema  rappresentativo  (Le  theorie  de  I’etat  et  le  systeme 
representatif). 

- La  filosofia  positiva  e la  classifieazione  delle  science  (La  philosophie  positive  et 

la  classification  des  sciences). 

— II  pragmatismo  (Le  pragmatisme) . 

— I numeri  e V infinito  {Les  nombres  et  I’  infini). 

— II  problema  della  realtd  {Le  probleme  de  la  realite). 

Enriques,  P.  (Bologna):  La  morte  (La  mort). 

et  Gortani,  M.  (Bologna):  La  successione  degli  strati  e la  teoria  dei 

periodi  geologici  (La  succession  des  couches  et  la  theorie  des  per  iodes  geologiques). 
Emery,  C.  (Bologna)  II  polimorfismo  e la  fondazione  delle  societd  negli  insetti  sociali 
(Le  polymorphisme  et  la  fondation  des  societes  chez  les  insectes  sociaux). 

Fabry,  Ch.  (Marseille) : La  theorie  electromagnetique  de  V univers. 

Fano,  Gino  (Torino):  La  geometria  non-euclidea  (La  geometrie  non-euclidienne) . 
Fano,  Giulio  (Firenze):  Chimica  e biologia  (Chimie  et  biologie). 

Fisher,  I.  (New  Haven;  Conn.,  U.  S.  A.):  The  « impatience  theory  » of  interest. 
A study  of  the  causes  determining  the  rate  of  interest  (line  theorie  de  I’  inter  et 
fondee  sur  V impatience.  Etude  des  causes  qui  determinent  le  taux  cV  interet). 
Foa,  P.  (Torino):  II  significato  biologico  dei  tumori  (La  signification  biologique 
des  tumeurs). 

France,  R.  H.  (Mlinchen):  Das  Eeaktionsvermogen  der  Pfianze  (Le  pouvoir  de 
reaction  des  plantes). 

Fredericq,  L.  (Liege) : De  la  coordination  organique  par  action  chimique. 
Galeotti,  G.  (Napoli):  Le  teorie  sulla  immunitd  (Les  theories  sur  I’  immunite). 

— La  dottrina  degli  anticorpi  (L’Mat  de  nos  connaissances  sur  les  anticorps), 

Gini,  C.  (Bologna):  Che  cos’  e la  probabilitd?  (Qu’  est-ce  que  la  probabilite  f). 
Giuifrida-Rug^geri,  V.  (Napoli) : II  pithecanthropus  erectus  e I’  origine  della  specie 

umana  (Le  pithecanthropus  erectus  et  V origine  de  V espece  humaine). 
Guig'nebert,  Ch.  (Paris):  Les  origines  chretiennes 

— L’ evolution  du  christianisme  ancien. 

— De  Saint  Augustin  d Pie  X. 

Haberlandt,  G.  (Gratz):  Ueber  Bewegung  und  Empfindung  im  Pfianzenreich  (Du 
mouvement  et  de  la  sensibilite  dans  le  regne  vegetal). 

Hahn,  E.  (Berlin):  Die  Entstehung  der  Bodenwirtschaft  {Les  origines  de  I’  economie 
agricole). 

Hartog,  M.  (Cork):  The  dynamics  of  mitotic  celldivision  (La  dynamique  de  la  division 
cellulaire  mitotique). 

Herz,  N.  (Wien):  Die  Eiszeiten  {Les  epoques  glaciaires). 

Hbber,  R.  (Kiel):  Die  biologische  Bedeutung  der  Kolloide  (La  valeur  biologique 
des  colloides). 

Hoernes,  M.  (Wien) : Die  korperlichen  Grundlagen  der  Kulturentwicklung  (Les  bases 
structurales  du  developpement  intellectuel). 

Janet,  P.  (Paris):  Le  subcoscient. 

Jespersen,  0.  (Gentofte  - Danemark):  Origin  of  linguistic  species  (L’ origine  des 
especes  linguistiques) . 

Kidd,  B.  (Oxford):  The  two  capital  laws  of  sociology  (Les  deux  lois  fondamentales 
de  la  sociologie). 

Eandry,  A (Paris):  Les  trois  theories  prindpales  de  la  population. 


Landry,  A.  (Paris):  L’ ecole  economique  autrichienne : I.  Histoire  de  V ecole ; ses 
conceptions  methodolofjiqnes.  II.  Ses  theories.  Conclusiou. 

Lebedew,  P.  (Moscoii):  Die  Drucicicrdfte  des  Liclites  (Les  forces  de  pression  de  la 
lumiere). 

Le  Dantec,  F.  (Paris):  Comment  se  pose  la  question  de  I’  heredite  des  caracteres  acquis 

Lehmann,  0.  (Karlsruhe):  Scheinhar  lehende  jiiessende  Kristalle,  Iciinstliche  Zellen 
und  MusTceln  (Cristaux  jinides  aifant  une  apparence  de  vie  orqanique ; cell^es 
et  muscles  artificiels).  ^ 

Levi,  A.  (Firenze):  II  pensiero  scientijico  europeo  nel  secolo  decimonono  (La  pensee 

Loisy,  A.  (Paris) : La  critique  des  evanyiles 
scientifique  en  Europe  au  XTXsiecle). 

Loria,  A.  (Torino):  L^  indiriszo  storico  nella  scienza  economica  (Le  point  de  vue 
historique  dans  la  science  economique). 

Lowell,  P.  (Flagstaff,  Arizona  - U.  S.  A.):  Mars  (Mars). 

Mach,  E.  (Wien):  Die  Leitgedanken  meiner  natnrwissenschaftlichen  Erkenntnis- 
lehre  und  Hire  Aufnahme  durch  die  Zeitgenossen  (Les  idees  directrices  de  ma 
theorie  de  la,  connaissance  dans  les  sciences  naturelles  et  I’aecueil  qu’  elles  out 
regu  des  contemporains). 

Maunder,  E.  W.  (Greenwich):  The  « Canals » of  Mars  (Les  «Canaux»  de  3[ars). 

Maunier,  K.  (Paris):  La  sociologie  frangaise  contemporainc. 

Mazzarella,  G.  (Catania):  D etnotogia  giuridica,  I suoi  meiodi,  i suoi  risultati 
( L’ ethnologie  juridique,  ses  methodes,  ses  resultats). 

Meillet,  A,  (Paris) : Linguistique  historique  et  Hnguistique  generate. 

— Differenciation  et  unification  dans  les  langues. 

Miceii,  V.  (Palermo) : Gli  elementi  vivi  del  diritto  (Les  elements  vivants  du  droit) 

Moreux,  Th.  (Boiirges) : Le  Soldi  et  la  prevision  des  pluies. 

Oppenheimer,  F.  (Berlin).  Wesen  und  Entstehung  des  Kapitalismus  (L’  essence  et 
V origine  du  capitalisme). 

Ostwald,  W.  (Leipzig):  Zur  modernen  Energetik  (De  I’  en  erg  etique  moderne). 

— Der  Wille  und  seine  physische  Grundlegung  (La  volonte  et  sa  base  physique). 

Pareto,  V.  (Losanne):  ITeconomie  et  la  sociologie  au  point  de  vue  scientifique. 

Picard,  E.  (Paris):  La  mecanique  classique  et  ses  approximations  suceessives. 

Pikler,  J.  (Budapest):  Uber  die  biologische  Funktion  des  Bewussteseins  (Surla  fonction 

biologique  de  la  conscience). 

Pizzetti.  P.  (Pisa):  Le  misurazioni  fisiche  e la  teoria  degli  errori  d-  osservazione 
(Les  mesurages  physiques  et  la  theorie  des  erreurs  d’  observation). 

Poincare,  H.  (Paris):  L’ avenir  des  mathematiques. 

— L’  d'olution  des  lots. 

Puiseux,  P.  (Paris) : La  place  du  Soleil  parmi  les  etoHes. 

Rabaud,  (Paris):  IT  evolution  teratologique. 

Raffaele,  F.  (Palermo):  II  concetto  di  specie  in  biologia : I.  Avanti  e in  Bane  in  ; 
II.  La  critica  post-darviniana  (Le  concept  d’  espde  en  biologie:  I.  Avant  et  chez 
Darwin;  II.  La  critique  post-darwinienne). 

Reinach,  S.  (Paris):  De  V in fiuence  des  images  sur  la  formation  des  mythes. 

Rey,  A.  (Paris):  La  possibilite  d’  une  methode  positive  dans  la  theorie  de  la  con- 
naissance. 

Riccobono,  S.  (Palermo):  L’  in fiuenza  del  cristianesimo  nella  codificazione  di  Giu- 
stiniano  (L’  in  fiuence  du  christianisme  dans  la  codification  de  Justinien). 

Rig;nano,  E.  (Milano):  La  memoire  biologique  en  energetique. 

— Deir  origine  e natura  muemonica  delle  tendenze  affettive  (De  V origine  et  de  la 

nature  mnemoniques  des  tendances  affectives). 

— Qxd  est-ce  que  la  conscience  f 

— II  fenomeno  religioso  (Le  phenomene  religieux). 

— Le  materialisme  historique. 

— II  socialismo  (Le  socialismej. 

Rig'hi,  A.  (Bologna) : Comete  ed  elettroni  (Cometes  et  electrons). 

Ritz,  W.  (Gottingen)  : Die  Gravitation  (La  gravitation). 

— Du  role  de  P ether  en  physique. 

Rosa,  D.  (Firenze):  Delle  leggi  che  regolano  la  variabilitd  filogenetica  (Des  lois  qui 
gouvernent  la  variabilite  phylog&netique). 

Rouse,  W.  H.  D.  (Cambridge):  Classical  work  and  method  in  the  twentieth  century 
(Les  etudes  classiques  pendant  le  XX^  siecle). 

Russell,  E.  S.  (London):  The  evidence  of  natural  selection  (Les  preuves  de  P existence 
d’ une  selection  naturelle). 

— Vitalism  (Le  vltalisme). 

Sagnac,  Ph.  (Lille):  De  P importance  relative  des  fails  economiques  dans  P evolution 
historique. 


Schiaparelli,  G.  (Milano);  I primordt  deW  astronomia  presso  i Babilonesi  (La 
naissance  de  I’  astronomie  cliez  les  Bahyloniens). 

- I progressi  deU’  astronomia  presso  i Babilonesi  (Ijes  pr ogres  de  V astronomie  chez 
les  Bahyloniens). 

Scialoja,  V.  (Koma) : L’ arbitrio  del  legislatore  nella  formaizione  del  diritto  positivo 
(L’  arbitraire  dii  legislateur  dans  Ui  formation  du  droit  positif). 

Seelig;er,  H.  (Miiiichen) : tlber  die  Anwendung  der  Natnrgesetze  auf  das  Universum 
(Sur  V application  des  lois  de  la  nature  d Punivers). 

Semon,  R.  (Miincheu) : Die  physiologischen  Grundlagen  der  organisclien  Beproduk- 
tionsphaenomene  (Les  fondements  physiologiques  des  plienomhies  organiques  de 
reproduction). 

Sergei,  G.  (Roma):  Lacune  nella  scienza  antropologica  (Quelques  lacunes  dans  la 
science  antliropologique). 

Severi,  F.  (Padova):  Ipotesie  realtd  nelle  scienze  geometriclie  (Hypotheses  et  realite 
dans  les  sciences  geometriques). 

Sherring^ton,  Oh.  S.  ( Liverxiool ) ; The  « role  » of  reflex  inhibition  ( Le  role  de 
P inhibition  rfflexe). 

Sitnmel,  H.  (Berlin):  Beitrdge  zur  Bhilosophie  der  Geschichte  (Quelques  considera- 
tions sur  la  philosophie  de  P histoire). 

Soddy,  F.  (Glasgow):  The  parent  of  radium  (Le  pdre  du  radium). 

Solla,  R.  (Pola) : Die  Bflanzenphysiologie  in  ihren  Beziehungen  zu  den  anderen 
Wissenschaften  (La  pJiysiologie  vegetale  et  ses  rapports  avec  les  autres  sciences). 

Sollas  W.  J.  (Oxford);  The  evolution  of  man  (L^  evolution  de  P homme). 

Sombart,  W.  (Breslau) : Die  Entstehung  der  Stddte  im  Mittelalter  (L^  origine  des 
villes  an  moyen  dge). 

Sommerfeldt,  E.  (Tubingen);  Grundlagen  der  theoretischen  Kristallographie  (Les 
bases  de  la  cristallographie  theorique). 

Suess,  F.  E.  (Wien) : Moderne  Theorien  der  Erdbeben  imd  Vulkane  (Les  theories 
modernes  sur  les  tremblements  de  terre  et  les  volcans). 

Supine,  C.  (Pavia).  II  caratte^'e  delle  leggi  economiche  (Le  caractere  des  lois  econo- 
miques). 

Tannery,  J.  (Paris);  Questions  pMagogiques : L’ enseignement  secondaire. 

Uexkull,  J.  V.  (Heidelberg) : Die  neuen  Fragen  in  der  experimentellen  Biologie 
(Nouvelles  questions  de  la  biologie  experimentale). 

Volterra,  V.  (Roma):  II  momeiito  scientifleo  presente  e la  nuova  Societd  Italiana 
per  il  progresso  delle  scienze  (Le  moment  scientiflque  present  et  la  nouvelle  Societe 
Italienne  pour  P avancement  des  sciences). 

Walden,  L.  (Riga):  TJeber  das  Wesen  des  Ldsungsvorganges  und  die  Bolle  des 
Mediums  (Sur  la  nature  du  processus  de  solution  et  le  role  du  solvant). 

Wallerant,  F.  (Paris):  Les  liquides  cristallises. 

Westermarck,  E.  (Helsingfors);  The  origin  of  religious  celibacy  (Les  origines  du 
celibat  religieux). 

Wiesner,  J.  (Wien) : Der  Lichtbedarf  der  Pflanze  (La  quantite  de  lumiere  neces- 
saire  a la  plante). 

Zeeman,  P.  (Amsterdam)  ; L"  origine  des  couleurs  du  spectre 

Zeuthen,  G.  H.  (Kopenhagen) : Quelques  traits  de  la  propagation  de  la  science  de 
generation  en  generation. 

Zieg^ler,  H.  E.  (Jena).  Die  natiirliche  Zuchtwahl  (Tai  selection  naturelle). 

Ziehen,  H.  (Frankfurt  a.  M.) ; Die  Kultur  der  Gegenwart  (La  culture  intellectuelle 
de  notre  temps). 


“SCIENTIA,,  puhlie  aussi  des  NOTES  CRITIQUES  sur  des  sujets 
d’  actualite ; des  OOMPTES  RENDUS  sur  tous  les  ouvrag^es  d’  interet 
g;eneral  recemment  parus ; des  REVUES  GENERALES  d’  Astronomie,  de 
Physique,  Ghimie,  Biolog^ie,  Physiolog^ie,  Fsycholog^ie  et  Economie;  des 
ANALYSES  des  articles  les  plus  importants  qui  paraissent  sur  les  princi* 
paux  periodiques  du  monde;  et  enfin  une  CHRONIQUE  (Congres  et  Reu- 
nions - Nouvelles  diverses)  se  tenant  au  courant  de  tous  les  evenements 
de  haute  importance  scientilique. 


Sommaires  des  N.”®  de  la  I""  et  de  la  2*"’®  annee  (1907  et  1908) 


Premiere  Livrai-son  (N.  I).  — E.  - La  mecanique  classique  et  ses  approximations  sue- 

cessives.  — W . Ost>VMlil  • Zur  modernen  Energetik.  — G.  Ciaiiiioittii  • Prohlemi  e metodi 
della  chimica  organica.  — E»  KstITsiolo  - II  concetto  di  specie  in  biologia:  1°  Avanti  e in  Dartvin.  — 
H.  E.  Ziei^lei*  • Die  natiirliche  Zuchtwahl.  — C.  Sii|iiiio.-  11  carattere  delle  leggi  economiche- 

— W.  CiiiiiiiiiS’lisiiii  - Impartiality  in  history.  — .1,  Tsmiioi'y  - Questions  pedagogiqiies : 
r enseignement  secondaire.  — Revues  generales  de  Physique  et  de  Physiologie  par  €>.  C<n*l>iiio 
et  E.  Bottcfczzi.  — Coiuptes  rendus.  — Chronique. 

Deuxieme  Livraison  (N.  II).  — l>e  Hflsirclii  • Che  cos’ e la  Terra?  — F.  Walleruiit  * 
Les  liquides  cristallises.  — F.  KsillViele  : II  concetto  di  specie  in  biologia:  2.”  La  critica  post- 
darwiniana.  — II.  Dt*ie.«cll  • Die  Physiologie  der  individuellen  organischen  Fornibildiing  — 
R.  Nollai  • Die  Pflansenphysiologie  in  ihren  Besiehungen  zu  den  anderen  Wissensehaften.  — 
V.  l•aI•eto  - L’ economie  et  la  sociologie  au  point  de  vue  scientifique.  — T.  X.  Cai*vei*  • 
The  english  classical  school  of  political  economy.  — F.  Eiir*ic|iie!ii$  • Heterodox  science  and  its 
social  function.  — G.  l'a^tcliiuov4»  - II  valore  didattico  della  matematica  e della  fisica.  — 
Revues  generales  de  Physique  et  de  Chiiuie  par  O.  HI,  Coi»l>iilO  et  G.  Rl'liili.  — Ceinptes 
rendus.  — Chronique. 

Troisieme  Livraison  (N.  III).  — I*.  Fizzetti  • Le  misurazioni  fisiche  e la  teoria  degli 
errori  d’ osservazione.  — F,  Eiii'i(|iiei!i  - Le  principe  d’inertie  et  les  dynamiques  non-netvto- 
niennes.  — E.  Hoiiiiviei*IVl€lt  • Grundlagen  der  theoretischen  Kristallographie.  — V.  Relate 

- La  parthenogenese  experimentale  et  les  proprietes  des  solutions  electrolytiques.  — F.  Eiii'i4|iies 

- La  morte  — HI.  Hai'lo^'  - The  dynamics  of  mitotic  celldivision.  — E.  Claiiai^etl**  - La 
fonction  du  sommeil.  — A.  Eaiicli^y  - L’ ecole  economique  autrichienne : I.  Histoire  de  V e cole. 
Ses  conceptions  methodologiciues.  — W.  Soiiil>ai*t  • Die  Entstehung  der  Stddte  in  Mittelalter. 
Revue  generale  de  Physiologie  par  F.  R€>ltazzi.  — Coiuptes  rendus.  — Chronique. 

Quatrieme  Livraisox  (N.  IV).  — V.  Voltei'i'a  • II  niomento  scientifico  presente  e la  de 
nuova  Societa  Italiana  per  il  progresso  delle  scienze.  --  G.  Fal>i*y  • La  theorie  electromag neticpue 
I’  univers.  — F.  Walden  - Ueber  das  Wesen  des  Losungsvorganges  und  die  Rolle  des  Mediums 

— G.  FaiBO  • Chimica  e biologia.  — •!.  W^icsiiei*  • Der  Lichtbedarf  der  Pflanze.  --  V.  Giiif* 
f1i'ida-Riig;'^'ei*i  - II  pithecanthropus  erectus  e V origine  della  specie  tiniana.  — E.  Ri^'iiaiio 
i Qu’ est-ce  que  la  conscience?  — A.  Eaiidey  • L’  ecole  economique  autrichienne : IL  Ses  theo- 
res.  Conclusion.  — K.  Kidd  - The  two  capital  laws  of  sociology.  — E.  W’^estei'iiiai’ck  - 
The  origin  of  religious  celibacy.  — X.  Boiiiieseii  • La  reforme  de  V enseignement  des  mathema- 
tiques  elementaires.  — Revue  generale  de  Physique  par  T.  Levi-Civita.  — Coiuptes  rendus,  — 
Cronique. 


Prejiiere  Livraison  (N.  V).  — C,  Faliey  - La  theorie  electromagnetique  de  I’ univers.  — phy 
C.  II.  Bi*.i  ►'an  - Diffusion  and  dissipation  of  energy.  — G.  Roelfei’  - Die  Anwendung  der 
sikalischen  Chemie  auf  Mineralogie  und  Geologic.  — E.  Ral>and  • L’evolution  teratologique. 

— W.  EGistein  - Zur  Geschichte  der  Entwicklung  des  Krankeitsbegriffes.  — F.  Foa  • Il  signi- 
ficato  biologico  dei  tumori.  — A.  Eoi*ia  ■ L’ indirizzo  storico  nella  scienza  economica.  — B.  Kidd. 
The  two  principal  laws  of  sociology.  — F.  Enricfnes  • L’  universita  italiana.  — Note  critique 
par  H.  Fiefon.  — Revues  generales  de  Physique  et  de  Physiologie  par  E.  De  Hlarelii  et 
F.  Bottazzi.  — Coiuptes  rendus.  — Chronique. 

Deuxieme  Livraison  (N.  VI).  — G.  Seliiai>ai*elli  ■ 1 primordt  delV  astronomia  presso  i 
Babilonesi.  — W.  Ritz  - Du  role  de  V ether  en  physique.  — G.  II.  Bi*ya»i  - Diffusion  and 
dissipation  of  energy.  — G.  Ilal>eelan«lt  - Ueber  Bewegung  und  Empfindung  im  I^anzeureieh 

— A.  Dionii^i  - Il  concetto  di  malattia.  — F.  Oppenlieiinee  • Wesen  und  Entstehung  des 
Kapitalismus.  — G.  Gini  - Che  cos’ e la  probabilita?  — F.  Eni'icines  • La  riforma  deW  uni- 
versitd  italiana  — Note  critique  par  E.  Rig'nano.  — Revue  generale  de  Physique  par  O.  HI. 
Goel>inn  — Coniptes  rendus.  — Revue  des  Revues.  — Chronique. 

Troisieme  Livraison  (N.  VII).  — If*  Foincaee  - L’  avenir  des  maihematiques.  — G. 
^cliiaimeelli  - I progressi  dell’  astronomia  presso  i Babilonesi.  — G.  Bi*nni  • Le  solu- 
zioni  solide.  — *1.  v.  Llexkiill  - Die  neuen  Fragen  in  der  experimentellen  Biologie.  — HI.  Ganl- 
leey  - La  methode  et  les  criteres  de  la  morphologic,  — II.  Boenttaii  - Die  innere  Sekretion- 

— E.  Rig'iiano  - Le  materialisme  historique.  — VA^.  II*  D.  Roiii^e  - Classical  ivork  and 
method  in  the  twentieth  century.  — Note  critique  par  F.  Eni*ic|ne.«i.  — Revue  generale  de  Physio- 
logie jiar  F.  B4>ttazzi.  — Coniptes  rendus.  — Revue  des  Revues.  — Clironique. 

Quatrieme  Livraison  (N.  A^III).  — A.  Eevi  - Il  pensiero  scientifico  europeo  nel  secolo  deci- 
monono.  — G.  Fano  - La  geometria  non-euclidea.  — O.  Eeliniann  - Scheinbar  Lebeude 
Fliessende  Kristalle,  kiinstlichen  Zellen  tind  Muskeln.  — F.  Ee  Dan  tec  - Comment  se  pose  la 
question  de  1’ heredite  des  caracteres  acquis.  — D.  Rosa  • Delle  leggi  che  reggono  la  variabilitd 
filogenetica.  — F.  Oppenlieiiner  - Wesen  und  Entstehung  des  Kapitalismus.  — *1.  B<»nai* 

— Home  trade  and  foreign  trade.  — A.  Hleillct  - ijiu^ttistique  historique  et  linguistique  generale. 

— Revues  generates  de  Physique  et  de  Physiologie  par  D.  HI.  Goi*l>ino  et  F.  Bottazzi.  - 
Coniptes  rendus.  — Revue  des  Revues.  — (Chronique, 


Sommaires  des  de  la  3'™  et  de  la  4“'"'  annee  (1909  et  1910) 


Premiere  Livraison  TN.  IXj.  — II  prineipio  cli  ragion  sufficiente  nella  costriisione  scientifica. 
H G.  Zeiltlieil  - La  propagation  de  la  science  de  generation  en  generation.  — I*.  Zeeiimil 

— L'origine  des  couleurs  dii  spectre.  — L.  ■ Die  Besiehungen  ziv.  Struktur  xi.  Fimktion 

im  tierischen  Organismus.  — K.  S.  Kiissell  - The  evidence  for  ixatural  selection.  — G . Uoliil 

— Le  pstjchisme  dies  les  animaux  inferieurs.  — I>.  v.  Boi'tkiewicz  - Die  statistichen  Gene- 

ralisationexi.  Hicool>OiiO  - L’influensa  del  cristianesimo  nella  codificazione  di  Giustiniano. 

— Note  critique  par  E.  Kig'liailO  — Revue  generaie  de  Biologic  par  E.  KllSSell  — Com- 
ptes  rendus  — Revue  des  Revues  — Chroniqne. 

Deuxieme  Livraisox  (N.  X).  — S.  Ai’i'lieiBiiis  - Die  Unendlichkeit  der  Welt.  — G.  H. 
Dai'wiii  • The  xdgidity  of  the  earth.  — VV.  Uitz  - Die  Gravitation.  --  F.  Soclcly  ■ The 
parent  of  radium.  — E.  Fi**t«le»^ie€j  - De  la  coordination  organique  par  action  chhniqne.  — 
E Eli^ai’O  - Preformismo  ed  epigenesi  xiello  svilnppo  del  sistema  xiervoso.  — •!.  Fiklei'  • 
Ueher  die  Uologische  Fimktion  des  Bewusstsems.  — Fli.  Sas^iiac  - Importance  des  faits  econo- 
miques  dans  revolution  historique.  — S.  Reiiiacli  • De  V influence  des  images  sar  la  formation 
des  mifthes.  F.  Eiil*i«|lies  - Razionalismo  e storicismo.  — Note  critique  par  H.  FlerOil 

— Revues  generates  de  Chimie,  de  Biologic  et  d’ Economique  par  C.  Doeltor,  E.  S. 
et  A.  Eaiiclry.  — Comptes  rendus  — Revue  des  Revues  — Chronique. 

Troisieme  Livraisox  (N.  XI).  — F.  BoiltfOllx  - L’ evolution  des  niathematiques  piix'es- 

— E.  Borel  • Le  continu  mathematiqae  et  le  continu  physique.  — F.  E.  Siiess  — Modexme 
Theorien  der  Erdheben  und  Vulkane.  Erster  Teil : Die  Erdbeben.  — G.  Kruiii  - La  chimica  fisica 
nei  suoi  rapporti  colle  scienze  biologiche.  - E.  Kij^'iiaao  - La  memoire  biologique  en  energetique. 

— J.  DeiilOOi'  - A propos  du  mecanisme  des  phenomenes  d’  irritabilite.  — G.  Sergl  • Lacune 
nella  scienza  antropologica.  — O.  .I<*si>ersea  - Origine  of  linguistic  species.  — A.  Eaaciry 
. Les  trois  theories  principales  de  la  population.  — F.  Eiiric|iies  -^La  teoria  dello  Stato  e il 
sistema  rappresentativo.  — Notes  critiques  par  E.  Do  Maoclii  et  • Soiltly.  Revues  gene- 
rates d’  Astronoinie  et  de  Biologic  par  \V.  Kitz  et  1*.  Eiiri(|iios.  — Comptes  rendus  — Re- 
vue des  Revues  — Chronique. 

Quatrieme  Livraisox  (N.  Xll).  — H.  Heelig-ei*  - Uber  die  Anwendung  der  Naturgesetze 
auf  das  Universum.  — I^.  Do  JDa  1*0111  - Come  si  formano  le  montagne.  1* . E.  Hiioss 
Moderne  Theorien  der  Erdbeben  und  Vulkane.  Zweiter  leil:  Die  Vulkane.  Eiii*iC|iiCS 

e >1.  Gortaiii  - La  successione  degli  strati  e la  teoria  dei  periodi  geologici.  — F.  Bottazzi  - 
Chiniica  fisica  e fisiologia.  — B.  II.  Ffaiice  - Das  Eeaktionsvermbgen  der  Pflanze.  — T.  X. 
C’ai*voi'*  - Diminishing  returns  and  valxie.  — G.  Siiiiiiiol  - Beitrdge  zux'  Philosophie  der 

Geschichte.  A.  Hey  - La  possibilite  d’  ime  xnethode  positive  dans  la  theorie  de.  la  connaissance. 

Notes  critiques  par  G.  Vailati  et  F.  Eiil*i<|lies  — Revues  generates  de  Psychologic  par  11. 
F ei*Oli  — Comptes  rendus  — Revue  des  Revues  Chronique. 


Premiere  Livraisox  (N.  XIII)  — F.  Eo'well  - Mars  — B.  Beiiiilies  - La  diversite 
de  fortune  des  deux  principes  de  la  thermodynamique.  — B.  Iloljei*  - Die  biologische  Bedeutung 
der  Kolloide.  - G,  Gali'Otti  • Le  teoxne  sulla  immxinitd-  — F.  •laiiet  • Le  subeonscient.  — 
F.  A".  Edg'ovoetli  - On  the  use  of  the  differential  calculus  in  economics.  — E.  Bi^iiaiio  - 
II  fenomeno  religioso.  — V.  t^oialoja  - L’  arbitrio  del  legislatox'e  nella  forniazione  del  dix’itto 
positive.  — Jf.  Zielieil  - Die  Kultur  der  Gegenwart.  — Note  critique  par  H.  Fiei*oii  — Revues 
generates  d’Anthropologie  et  de  Psychologic  par  V.  Giiif¥i*icla - Biig'g'ei*!  et  A.  Bey. — 
Comptes  rendus  — Revue  des  Revues  — Chronique. 

Deuxieme  Livraisox  (N.  XIV).  — E.  Hlacli  - Die  Leitgedanken  meiner  natunvissenschaft- 
lichen  Erkenntnislehre  xind  Hire  Aufnahme  durch  die  Zeitgenossen.  — A.  C.  D.  Ci*Oi¥iiiieIiii  . 
The  origin  and  nature  of  comets.  — E.  VA’".  Maiiiidei*  • The  “ Canals  „ of  Mars.  — H- 
Boiiasse  - Developpement  historique  des  theories  de  la  physique.  — F,  Eeliedevi’'  - Die 
Druckkrdfte  des  Lichtes.  — G.  Galeotti  - La  dottrina  degli  anticorpi.  — R.  Seiiioii  • Die 
physiologischen  Grundlagen  der  ox'ganischen  Repx'oduktionsphaenomene  — C.  Eiiiei*y  - II  poli- 
morfismo  e la  fondazione  delle  societd  negli  insetti  sociali.  — M.  Hoei*iiei9  - Die  korperlichen 
Grundlagen  der  Kulturentivicklung.  — F.  Eiii*icgiies  - La  filosofia  positiva  e la  classificazione 
delle  scienze.  — Revues  generates  de  Physique,  de  Droit  et  d’ Histoire  par  Cli.  Faliey?  F.  Boil- 
fante,  et  G.  Baiiei^'iil.  — Comptes  rendus.  — Revue  des  Revues.  — Clironique. 

Troisieme  Livraisox  (N.  XV)  — F.  Sevei*i  - Ipotesi  e realtd  nelle  scienze  geometriche.  — 
A.  Eddington  - Star-streams.  — O.  Cliwolisoii  - Duefern  tvir  die  phxjsikalischen  Gesetze 
auf  das  Universum  amvende?  — B.  Al>e^g‘  - Chemische  Affinitdt,  Valenz  und  das  naturliehe 
System  der  Elements.  — A.  Betlie  - Neuere  Vorstelluxigen  iiber  die  Natur  der  bio- elektxnschen 
Strome.  — B.  Alaiiiiiei*  - La  sociologie  frangaise  contemporaine.  — G.  JBazzaeella  • 
L’ etnologia  giuridica,  i suoi  metodi,  i suoi  xnsultati.  — Cli.  Glii^‘iiel>ei*t  - Les  origines  chre- 
tiennes.  — F.  - II  pragmatismo.  — Revues  generates  de  Pliysique,  de  Biologic  et  d’Eco- 

nomique  par  E.  de  Bailleliaelie,  E.  S.  Biisi^ell^  et  A.  Eaiidi*y.  — Comptes  rendus. 
Revue  des  Revues.  — Chronique. 

Quatrieme  Livraisox  (N.  XA^l).  — K.  Boliliii  - Was  ist  die  Milchstrasse  ? — A.  Bi^'lii 
- Comete  ed  elettroni.  — Tli.  .Moi*eaiix  • Le  Soleil  et  la' prevision  des  pluies.  — AV.  Al.  Bay- 
liss$  - The  function  of  enzymes  in  vital  processes.  — Becliei*  Uber  Handlungsreaktionen  und 
Hire  Bedeutung.  fiir  das  Verstdndnis  der  organischen  Ziveckmdssigkeit.  — A^.  Alieeli  • GU  eln 
menti  vivi  del  diritto.  — E.  Big’iiaiio  • II  socialismo.  — Fli.  Giiijii;'iiel>ei*t  • L' evolution  de- 
christianisme  ancien.  — A.  Eaisy  - La  critique  des  evangiles.  — Revues  gi'merales  de  Biologie 
et  de  Paleontologie  par  A.  I*l*eiiaiit  et  G.  ^iei*gi,  — Comptes  rendus.  — Revue  des  revues. — 
Clironique. 


Sommaires  des  N.“^  de  la  annee  (1911) 


Premiere  Livraison  — (N.  XIII) 


F.  Enriques  - I numeri  e V infinito  - (Les  nomhres  et  V infini). 

P.  Piiiseux  - La  place  du  Soleil  parmi  les  Stoiles. 

N.  Herz  - Die  Eiszeiten  - (Les  epoques  glaciaires). 

O.  Casteliiuovo  - LI  principio  di  relativitd  e i fenomeni  ottici  - (Le  principe 

de  relativite  et  les  phenomenes  optiques). 

E.  Rigiiano  - DeW  origine  e natura  mnemo7iica  delle  tendenze  affettive  - (De 
V origine  et  de  la  nature  mnemoniques  des  tendances  affectives). 

W.  J.  Sollas  - The  evolution  of  man  - (L’  evolution  de  V homme). 

E.  Hahn  - Die  Entstehimg  der  Bodemvirtschaft  - (Les  origines  de  V econo- 
mie  agricole). 

Oil.  Guig:n chert  - De  Saint  Augustin  d Pie  X. 

Nota  Biografica  di  G.  Ciainician  - {L' oeuvre  de  Stanislas  Cannizzaro). 

Nota  critica  di  H.  Pieron  - (Les  instincts  nuisihles  a V espece  devant  les 
theories  transformistes). 

Analisi  critiche  di:  E.  De  Martonne^  Traite  de  geographie  physique 
(E.  Repossi)  - A.  0.  Seward,  Darwin  and  modern  science  (E.  S.  Russell)  - 
W.  OsTWALD^  Crosse  Manner  (W.  Mecklenburg)  - A.  Loria^  La  sintesi 
economica:  studio  suite  leggi  del  reddito  (E.  Liiiientani)  - J.  Pentland 
Mahaffy,  What  have  the  Greehs  done  for  modern  civilisation  f (G.  Chat- 
terton-Hill)  - W.  JAMES;,  Philosophic  de  V experience  (F.  Enriques). 

Rassegna  di  A-stronomia  di  F.  W.  Henkel  - (L’  evolution  stellaire  et 
les  theories  de  la  capture). 

Rassegna  di  Biologia  di  G.  Seliber  - (La  structure  du  protoplasme). 

Rivista  delle  Riviste. 

Notizie  - (Congres  et  Reunions  - Xouvelles  diverses). 


Voir  dans  les  pages  precedentes  les  sommaires  des  autres  numeros 
deja  parus  ct  la  liste  par  ordre  atphabetique  de  tons  les  articles 
publics  Jusqu*  id. 


I.  FISHER 


m “ liPAll  T0W  „ OF  IITBT 


A STUDY  OF  THE  CAUSES 


DETERMINING  THE  RATE  OF  INTEREST 


Estratto  da  “ SCIENTIA  „ Rivista  di  Scienza 
VoL.  IX,  Anno  V (1911),  XVIII-^ 


BOLOGNA 

NICOLA  ZANICHELLI 

LONDON  PARIS  LEIPZIG 

WILLIAMS  AND  NORGATE  FELIX  ALCAN  WILHELM  ENGELMANN 


/ / 


I 


i 


lx. 


liologna  - Stabilimento  Poligrafico  Emiliano 


I.  Interest  and  Money. 


/ Most  people  imagine  that  the  rate  of  interest  is  a techni- 

; cal  phenomenon,  concerning  only  money  lenders  or  borrow- 

j ers.  Of  explicit  or  contract  interest  this  is  in  a measure  true ; 
but  interest  haay  be  implicit  as  well  as  explicit.  It  is  impli- 
' plicit  in  every  price.  If  we  invest  in  a bond,  for  instance, 
the  price  that  we  pay  for  the  bond  carries  with  it  the  impli- 
cation  of  a rate  of  interest,  — that  is,  the  rate  we  expect  to 
""  realize  on  the  investment.  When  a man  buys  stocks  instead 
of  bonds,  or  even  a house  or  a piece  of  land,  the  same  ele- 
ment of  implicit  interest  enters  into  the  transaction.  He  can- 
not even  buy  a piano  or  an  overcoat  or  a hat  without 

discounting  » the  value  of  the  use  which  he  expects  to  make 

of  that  particular  article.  The  rate  of  interest,  then,  is  not  a 
narrow  technical  phenomenon.  It  touches  the  daily  life  of  us 
^ all. 


' Concerning  the  verbal  definition  of  the  rate  of  interest, 
^ there  is  no  dispute ; but  concerning  its  nature  and  its  causes, 
^ which  I propose  to  discuss,  there  are  numerous  and  conflic- 
f—  ting  theories. 

^ By  definition,  the  rate  of  interest  is  the  price  of  capi- 
^ tal  in  terms  of  income,  when  both  capital  and  income  are 
measured  in  terms  of  the  same  unit,  as,  for  instance,  of  mo- 
??  ney ; or,  what  amounts  to  the  same  thing,  the  rate  of  interest 
^ is  the  excess  above  par  which  has  to  be  paid  for  this  year’s 
money  in  terms  of  next  year’s  money. 


f 


4-(381)  I.  EISHEK 

But  why  should  there  be  this  excess?  Why  should  uot  a 
dollar  to-day  exchange  on  even  terms  for  a dollar  next  year? 
And  what  principles  determine  the  amount  of  excess?  These 
questions  are  among  the  most  perplexing  with  which  economic 
science  has  had  to  deal,  and  for  two  thousand  years  econo- 
mists have  been  trying  to  solve  the  riddle  which  they  represent. 

The  theory  of  interest  here  briefly  presented  is  that  more 
fully  contained  in  my  book  The  Rate  of  Interest  ^ It  may 
be  called  for  short,  the  « Impatience  » Theory  of  Interest. 

First  of  all  let  us  note  the  relation  of  interest  to  money. 
Among  the  earliest  fallacies  concerning  the  rate  of  interest 
was  that  it  depends  on  the  amount  of  money  in  circulation. 
In  particular,  this  fallacious  theory  held  that  plentiful  money 
makes  the  rate  of  interest  low.  We  commonly  speak  of  interest 
as  the  « price  of  money  »,  and  when  the  trade  journals  tell 
us  that  « money  is  easy  » in  Wall  Street,  or  Lombard  Street, 
their  meaning  is  that  interest  is  low,  and  low  because  it 
is  easy  to  borrow  money.  Or,  we  are  told  that  « the  money 
market  is  tight  »,  meaning  that  it  is  hard  to  borrow  money. 
Probably  the  great  majority  of  unthinking  business  men 
still  believe  that  interest  is  low  when  money  is  plentiful,  and 
high  when  money  is  scarce.  We  often  hear  the  argument 
that  the  present  high  cost  of  living  cannot  be  due  to  any 
plentifulness  of  money,  because  if  money  were  really  plen- 
tiful, it  would  be  « cheap  »,  meaning  that  the  rate  of  interest 
would  be  low,  whereas  it  is  fairly  high,  and  therefore,  it  is  argued, 
money  must  be  scarce. 

The  fallacy  consists  in  overlooking  the  fact  that  plenti- 
ful money  raises  the  demand  for  loans  just  as  much  as  it 
raises  the  supply.  If  money  becomes  more  abundant,  prices 
will  rise  and  if  prices  rise,  any  intending  borrower  will  need 
to  borrow  more  money  in  order  to  purchase  the  same.^Pnouiit 
of  goods. 

That  the  relative  abundance  of  money  has,  under  normal 
circumstances,  no  influence  on  the  rate  of  interest,  has  been 
well  known  to  those  versed  in  this  subject  ever  since  the 
days  of  Locke;  yet  the  opposite  belief  still  prevails  .among 
many  intelligent  people.  One  reason  for  this  error  is  found 
in  the  experience  and  usages  of  banks.  If  his  reserves  are 

^ Macmillan,  New  York  and  London,  Co.,  pnbliMi , 1907. 


THE  ‘‘  IMPATIENCE  THEORY  ,,  OF  INTEREST  5 -(">82) 

low  the  banker  raises  the  rate  of  interest  to  « protect  » those 
reserves.  If  the  reserves  are  abundant,  he  reduces  the  rate 
of  interest  in  order  to  get  rid  of  them.  But  he  mistakes  a 
merely  relative  scarcity  or  abundance  of  reserves  (as  compared 
with  money  in  circulation)  for  an  absolute  scarcity  or  abun- 
dance. When  he  says  that  more  money  lowers  the  rate  of 
interest,  he  ought  to  say  « When  bank  reserves  get  an  un- 
due fraction  of  money,  the  rate  of  interest  will  be  low;  but 
when  an  undue  fraction  goes  into  circulation  outside  of  banks, 
the  rate  of  interost  will  be  high  ».  In  other  words,  an  in- 
crease of  money  will  operate  in  two  different  ways,  according 
to  where  it  hajipens  to  go  first.  Normally,  however,  and  even- 
tually an  increase  of  money  distributes  itself  equally  among 
pockets,  tills,  and  bank  reserves;  and,  in  this  case  the  rate 
of  interest  will  not  be  affected  at  all. 

We  conclude,  then,  that  an  infiation  of  the  currency,  as 
such,  does  not  affect  the  rate  of  interest  at  all,  provided^ 
hoiveveTj  the  inflation  affects  the  loan  at  the  time  the  loan  is 
made  just  as  much  as  it  affects  the  repayment  at  the  time  the 
repayment  is  made.  This  proviso  is  important.  For  the  loan 
and  the  repayment  do  not  occur  at  the  same  time;  and  it  may 
be  that  the  degree  of  inflation  is  greater  or  less  at  the  end 
than  at  the  beginning  of  the  intervening  period,  in  which 
case  the  inflation  may,  through  its  effects  on  the  values  borrowed 
and  repaid,  affect  the  rate  of  interest  duriny  the  process  of 
change. 

Let  us  consider  this  transitional  effect.  Suppose,  for  in- 
stance, that  the  inflation  of  money  has  proceeded  at  such  a 
pace  that  prices  have  been  made  to  rise  at  the  rate  of  one  per 
cent  per  annum.  Then,]100  dollars  lent  last  year  is  equivalent  in 
purchasing  power  not  to  100  dollars  repayable  next  year,  but  to 
101  repayable  next  year.  If  prices  had  not  risen,  the  borrower 
would  pay  back  in  his  principal  of  100  the  value  of  the 
same  amount  of  goods  as  were  represented  by  the  100  which 
he  borrowed.  In  terms  of  goods  he  would  be  in  the  same 
position  at  the  end  as  at  the  beginning,  and  so  would  the 
lender.  But  we  are  supposing  that  prices  have  been  rising. 
Then  the  lender,  when  he  gets  back  his  principal  of  100,  does 
not  get  back  as  much  purchasing  power  as  he  lent,  and  the 
borrower  does  not  pay  back  as  much  purchasing  power  as  he 
borrowed.  Under  these  circumstances,  the  principal  of  a debt 


I.  fi8hp:k 


becomes  less  and  less  valuable.  If  prices  are  rising  1 per  cent 
a year  then  the  falling  principal  of  the  debt  would  have  to 
be  eked  out  each  year  by  an  indemnity  of  about  1 per  cent 
in  order  that  there  vshould  be  exactly  the  same  burden  on 
the  borrower  in  paying  back  as  there  would  have  been  if 
prices  had  not  risen.  In  practice  this  indemnity  may  be  paid 
as  I per  cent  higher  interest.  Likewise,  if  prices  are  rising 
2 per  cent  per  annum,  2 per  cent  would  have  to  be  added  to 
the  rate  of  interest,  and  so  on.  On  the  other  hand,  if  prices 
are  falling,  the  rate  of  interest^  in  order  to  offset  the  appre- 
ciation of  the  principal,  would  have  to  de  reduced. 

A study  of  the  periods  of  rising  and  falling  prices  in  the 
United  States,  England,  Germany,  Frances  China,  Japan,  and 
India  verifies  these  principles.  It  shows  that,  in  general,  when 
prices  are  rising,  the  rate  of  interest  is  high,  and  that  in  gen- 
eral when  prices  are  falling,  the  rate  of  interest  is  low. 


II.  Previous  Theories  of  Interest. 

AVe  have  considered  the  relation  of  the  relative  abun- 
dj^nce  of  money  to  the  rate  of  interest.  We  saw  that  the 
money  supply  has  no  effect  on  the  rate  of  interest  except 
during  transition  periods.  But  the  real  riddle  of  interest  still 
remains  unsolved.  Why  is  there  such  a thing  as  a rate  of 
interest,  even  when  the  purchasing  power  of  money  is  con- 
stant, and  what  determines  that  rate? 

Many  theories  have  been  proposed.  One  of  the  most 
persistent  is  the  theory  that  « interest  is  due  to  the  produc- 
tivity of  capital  ».  If  a man  who  has  never  thought  on  the 
subject  is  asked  why  the  rate  of  interest  is  5 per  cent,  he 
will  almost  invariably  answer : « Because  5 per  cent  is  what 
investments  pay  ».  Now  it  is  true  that  if  you  have  100  dollars 
and  invest  it,  and  it  yields  you  5 per  cent  a year,  the 
rate  of  interest  is  5 per  cent.  A 100,000  dollars  mill  will  produce 
a net  income  of  5000  a year.  A 100,000  elollars  piece  of  land  will 
produce  a net  crop  worth  5000  a year,  and  so  on  through- 
out the  whole  series  of  investments.  AA'hen  the  rate  of 
interest  is  5 per  cent,  nothing  at  first  sight  seems  more* 
e)bvious  than  that  it  is  5 x^er  cent  because  cax)ital  yields  5 
])er  cent.  Since  capital  is  productive,  it  seems  self-evident 


THE  “ IMPATIENCE  THEORY  „ OF  INTEREST  7 -(384) 

that  an  investment  of  100  dollars  in  i^rodiictive  land,  machinery, 
or  any  other  form  of  capital,  will  yield  a rate  of  interest  pro- 
portionate to  its  productivity.  This  proposition  looks  attrac- 
tive, but  it  is  superficial.  Why  is  the  land  worth  100,000? 
Simply  because  this  is  the  discounted  value  of  the  expected 
5000  a year.  The  value  of  capital  is  derived  by  the  process 
of  « discounting*  » from  the  value  of  its  income,  not  the  va- 
lue of  the  income  from  that  of  the  capital.  But  whenever  we 
thus  discount  income,  we  have  to  assume  a rate  of  interest. 
One  hundred  thousand  dollars  is  a capitalization  calculated  on 
the  basis  of  5 per  cent  interest.  If  we  capitalize  5000  dollars  at 
5 per  cent,  and  get  100,000,  we  naturally  find  that  we  are 
getting  5 per  cent  on  the  investment,  for  we  assumed  5 per 
cent  in  the  first  place.  We  get  out  exactly  what  we  put  in. 

Besides  the  productivity  theory  (which  itself  has  many 
variations)  there  are  numerous  other  theories,  such  as  the 
following : that  interest  represents  labor  saved  by  capital ; that 
interest  is  the  reward  of  abstinence,  or  of  waiting;  that 
interest  is  the  cost  of  managing  capital:  that  interest  is  the 
exjiloitation  of  laborers  by  capitalists.  The  last  is  the  socia- 
list’s theory.  To  the  socialist,  interest  appears  an  evil  — the 
evil  — and  he  thinks  it  ought  to  be  abolished.  He  says:  « It  is 
all  wrong  that  the  capitalist  who  does  not  lift  a finger  should 
get  any  pay;  he  is  getting  something  for  nothing,  namely 
interest ; interest  is  robbery ; interest  is  sucking  the  blood  out 
of  the  underman,  viz.  the  workman  ». 

The  socialist’s  position  involves  two  propositions:  first, 
that  practically  all  income  and  all  capital  are  produced  by 
labor;  and  secondly,  that  all  income  should  be  paid  to  the 
laborer.  Now  the  first  proposition  is  much  more  nearly  cor- 
rect than  the  second.  We  need  not  contest  it  in  order  to  see 
the  fundamental  error  in  the  theory  of  socialism.  Let  it  be 
granted  that  practically  every  instrument  of  production  is 
produced  by  labor;  let  it  be  granted  that  the  capitalist  is 
always  living  on  the  product  of  xiast  labor.  Yet  as  Bdhm- 
Bawerk  says: 

« The  iierfectly  just  proi)osition  that  the  laborer  should 
receive  the  entire  value  of  his  product  may  be  understood  to 
mean  either  that  the  laborer  should  now  receive  the  entire 
present  value  of  his  product,  or  should  receive  the  entire /u- 
ture  value  of  his  product  in  the  future.  But  Eodbertus  and 


8- (385) 


1.  FISHER 


the  socialists  exiiound  it  as  if  it  meant  that  the  laborer  should 
now  receive  the  entire  future  value  of  his  product  ». 

Finally  there  is  Bohm-Bawerk’ s own  theory,  which,  with 
some  variations,  is  that  of  his  predecessors  Bae,  Jevons,  Sax 
and  Lauuhardt,  as  well  as  some  of  his  various  successors, 
especially  Adolphe  Landry.  Bohm-Bawerk  calls  his  theory 
the  « Agio  Theory  ». 

Bohm-Bawerk  distinguishes  two  problems:  (1)  Why  does  in- 
terest exist  ? and  (2)  What  determines  any  particular  rate  of  in- 
terest! In  answer  to  the  first  problem,  he  states  virtually 
that  this  world  is  so  constituted  that  most  of  us  prefer  pre- 
sent goods  to  future  goods  of  like  kind  and  number.  This 
preference  is  due,  according  to  Bohm-Bawerk,  to  three  cir- 
cumstances: one  being  the  « technical  superiority  » of  present 
over  future  goods,  or  the  fact,  as  Bohm-Bawerk  conceives  it, 
that  the  « roundabout  » or  « capitalistic  » processes  of  produc- 
tion are  more  remunerative  than  those  which  yield  immediate 
returns.  This  circumstance  — the  so-called  technical  superiority 
of  present  over  future  goods  — we  believe  contains  essential 
errors. 

According  to  Bohm-Bawerk,  labor  invested  in  long  pro- 
cesses of  production  will  yield  larger  returns  than  labor  in- 
vested in  short  processes,  and  will  therefore  confer  a « tech- 
nical advantage  » uiion  those  who  have  the  command  of  that 
labor.  This  technical  advantage  produces,  so  Bohm-Bawerk 
believes,  a preference  for  present  over  future  goods  which  is 
entirely  apart  from  and  in  addition  to  the  preference  due  to 
the  perspective  underestimate  of  the  future  or  that  due  to 
the  underendowment  of  the  present.  Bohm-Bawerk  regards 
this  part  of  his  theory  as  most  essential,  and  repeatedly  states 
that  the  theory  must  stand  or  fall  by  the  truth  or  falsity  of 
this  part. 

The  fact  is  that  the  only  reason  any  one  prefers  the  product 
of  a month’ s labor  invested  to-day  to  the  product  of  a month’ s 
labor  invested  next  year  is  that  to-day ’s  investment  will  ma- 
ture earlier  than  next  year’ s investment.  If  a fruit  tree  is 
planted  to-day  which  will  bear  fruit  in  four  years,  the 
labor  available  to-day  for  j)lanting  it  is  preferred  to  the 
same  amount  of  labor  available  next  year;  because,  if  the 
planting  is  deferred  until  next  year,  the  fruit  will  likewise 
be  deferred  a year,  maturing  in  five  instead  of  four  years 


THE  “ IMPATIENCE  THEORY  „ OE  INTEREST  9 -(380) 

from  the  present.  Nor  is  this  essential  fact  altered  by  the 
possibility  of  a number  of  different  kinds  of  investments  to- 
day. It  is  true  that  a month’ s labor  in  the  present  may  be 
spent  in  planting  slow-growing  or  fast-growing  trees;  but  so 
may  a month’ s labor  invested  next  year.  It  is  from  the  pre- 
ference for  the  early  over  the  late  fruition  of  any  productive 
process  that  the  so-called  « technical  superiority  of  present 
over  future  goods  » derives  all  its  force  and  not  from  the 
superior  productiveness  of  roundabout  processes  of  produc- 
tion. The  latter  has  no  power  whatever  to  create  interest. 

It  is  impossible  in  this  brief  article  to  enter  into  a de- 
tailed account  of  Bohm-Bawerk’ s theory  and  its  merits  and 
defects.  For  amplification  of  the  brief  statement  here  presen- 
ted the  reader  is  referred  to  my  « Kate  of  Interest  ». 


III.  Human  Impatience  the  true  Basis  of  Interest. 

We  are  now  ready  to  state  briefiy  our  own  theory  of 
interest.  This  is  a modification  of  Bohm-Bawerk’ s agio  theory. 
Partly  to  distinguish  it  from  Bohm-Bawerk’ s,  and  partly  to 
find  a better  term  than  « agio  »,  it  is  here  pr\)posed  to  call 
the  present  theory  the  « Impatience  theory  ».  It  is  odd  that 
no  one  has  haxiiiened  heretofore  to  hit  on  this  term,  which 
seems  to  be  the  only  one  expressing  accurately  and  in  a 
single  word,  the  real  basis  of  interest.  The  term  delay  («  mora  ») 
was  used  by  some  medioeval  writers,  who  first  sought  to  ex- 
cuse interest  taking  on  the  ground  that  rex>ayment  of  a loan 
was  « delayed  » and  that  the  delay  should  be  penalized ; but 
the  justification  of  interest  consists  not  exactly  in  the  delay 
in  paying,  but  in  the  fact  that  the  borrower  does  not  like 
the  delay.  The  term  « abstinence  » has  had  much  currency; 
but  it  is  not  abstinence  but  the  inconvenience  of  abstinence 
which  is  the  real  factor.  By  Professor  Marshall  the  term 
« waiting  » has  been  suggested ; but  it  is  not  the  waiting 
which  is  significant  but  the  reluctance  to  wait.  Bbhm-Bawerk’s 
term  « agio  » has  attracted  much  attention;  but  it  has  no 
evident  meaning  until  it  is  explained  by  a longer  phrase — i.  e. 
« a premium  in  the  esteem  of  man  for  xiresent  over  future 
goods  ».  The  idea  which  it  is  sought  to  exx)ress  by  all  these 
l>roposed  terms  — delay,  abstinence,  waiting,  agio,  as  well 


10-(387) 


I.  FISHER 


as  by  other  more  clumsy  expressions  such  as  « labor  of  sa- 
ving »,  — is  simply  the  very  familiar  one  exxiressed  in  daily 
experience  by  the  term  « impatience  ».  It  is  because  a man 
is  impatient  that  he  thinks  « delay  » should  be  penalized; 
it  is  because  he  is  imijatient  that  « abstinence  » from  imme- 
diate indulgence  or  « waiting  » for  future  indulgence,  is  re- 
garded with  disfavor;  it  is  because  he  is  imx)atient  that  he 
puts  a iiremium  or  « agio  » on  j) resent  goods  as  compared 
with  future. 

The  jieculiar  litness  of  the  term  « imi)atience  » is  here 
emphasized  because  so  much  stress  has  been  laid  on  economic 
catch- words  and  because  this  particular  catch -word  seems  to 
liave  escaped  notice.  In  my  own  book,  « The  Eate  of  Inte- 
rest »,  for  instance,  this  term  was  unused  because  unthought 
of,  and  the  clumsier  and  less  self-explanatory  term  « time- 
X>reference  » was  employed  instead.  The  proiiosal  to  employ 
the  term  « impatience  » is  here  made  for  the  first  time.  While 
the  use  of  one  term  or  another  does  not  in  the  least  affect 
the  xirinciples  involved,  it  does  affect  the  poimlar  compre- 
hension of  those  principles. 

Impatience  is  a fundamental  attribute  of  human  nature. 
As  long  as  people  like  to  have  things  to-day  rather  than  to- 
morrow, there  will  be  a rate  of  interest.  Interest  is,  as  it 
were,  impatience  crystallized  into  a market  rate.  The  rate  of 
interest  is  formed  out  of  the  various  degrees  or  rates  of  im- 
])atience  in  the  minds  of  different  people.  The  rate  of  im^ia- 
tience  in  any  individual’ s mind  is  his  preference  for  receiving 
an  additional  dollar  or  dollar’ s worth  of  goods  at  once, 
over  receiving  it  a year  from  to-day.  In  other  words,  it 
is  the  excess  of  the  « marginal  utility  »,  or  as  I prefer  to 
express  it,  « desirability  » of  to-day’s  money  over  that  of  next 
year’s  money  viewed  from  to-day’s  standpoint.  It  can  be  ex- 
pressed in  numbers  as  the  x)remium  that  a man  is  willing  to 
l>ay  for  this  year’ s over  next  year’ s money.  If,  for  instance, 
in  order  to  get  1 dollar  at  once  he  is  willing  to  promise  to  iiay 
1 .05  next  year,  then  his  rate  of  imx>atience  is  5 jier  cent.  The 
present  1 dollar  is  worth  to  him  so  much  that,  in  order  to  get  it, 
he  is  willing  to  pay  5 xier  cent  more  than  1 dollar  in  the  future 
for  it.  It  is  because  of  the  willingness  to  do  this  to  gratify 
one’ s impatience  that  there  is  such  a thing  as  a rate  of  in- 
terest. A man  will  prefer  to  have  a machine  to-day  rather 


THE  “ IMPATIENCE  THEOEY  „ OP  INTEKEST  11 -(388) 

than  a machine  in  the  future ; a house  to-day  rather  than  a house 
a year  from  now ; a piece  of  land  to-day  rather  than  a piece  of 
land  w^hen  he  is  ten  years  older ; he  would  rather  have  some 
food  to-day  than  wait  until  next  year  for  it,  or  a suit  of 
(dothes,  or  stocks,  or  bonds,  or  anything  else. 

But  what  are  these  present  and  future  « goods  » which' 
are  thus  contrasted?  At  first  sight  it  might  seem  that  the 
« goods  » compared  are  rather  heterogeneous,  — wealth,  pro- 
])erty,  services,  or  any  economic  elements  whatever.  This  is 
true  but  some  of  these  cases  are  reducible  to  others.  When 
present  capital  is  preferred  to  future  capital,  this  i) reference 
is  really  a preference  for  the  income  of  the  first  capital  as 
compared  with  the  income  of  the  second.  As  already  indicated 
the  reason  we  would  choose  a iiresent  fruit  tree  rather  than 
a similar  fruit  tree  available  in  ten  years  is  that  the  fruit  of 
the  first  will  be  available  earlier  than  the  fruit  of  the  second. 
The  reason  we  prefer  immediate  tenancy  of  a house  to  the  right 
to  occupy  it  in  six  months  is  that  the  uses  of  the  house  will  be- 
gin six  months  earlier  in  one  case  than  in  the  other.  In  short, 
(^apital  available  early  is  preferred  to  capital  of  like  kind 
available  at  a more  remote  time,  simply  because  the  income 
of  the  former  is  available  earlier  than  the  income  of  the 
latter. 

It  will  thus  be  seen  that  all  rates  of  imiiatience  resolve 
themselves  into  preference  for  early  income  over  late  income. 
Moreover,  the  preference  for  present  income  over  future  in- 
come resolves  itself  into  the  preference  for  present  enjoyable 
income  over  future  enjoyable  income.  The  income  from  an 
article  of  caiiital  which  consists  merely  of  an  intermediate 
step  in  production  is  desired  for  the  sake  of  the  final  enjoyable 
income  to  which  that  intermediate  step  paves  the  way.  We 
prefer  present  bread  baking  to  future  bread  baking  because 
the  enjoyment  of  the  resulting  bread  is  available  earlier  in 
the  one  case  than  in  the  other. 

We  thus  see  that  all  impatience  for  goods  (preference  for 
prevsent  over  future  goods)  resolves  itself,  in  the  last  analysis, 
into  impatience  for  enjoyable  income  (a  preference  for  early 
enjoyable  income  over  late  enjoyable  income).  The  preference 
for  present  over  future  goods,  when  thus  reduced  to  its  low- 
est terms,  i.  e.  a preference  for  enjoyable  income  rids  the 
present  and  future  values  of  the  interest  element,  which,  in 


I.  FISHER 


all  other  attempts  at  explanation,  is  so  unconsciously  pre- 
supposed. For  when  any  other  goods  than  enjoyable  income 
are  considered,  their  values  already  imply  a rate  of  interest. 

IV.  The  influences  on  impatience. 

But  we  have  not  yet  wholly  solved  the  problem  of  inter- 
est. It  is  not  enough  to  know  that  the  more  impatient  a 
people  are,  the  higher  will  be  their  rate  of  interest,  and  that 
the  more  patient  they  are,  the  lower  will  be  their  rate  of 
interest.  We  must  also  know  on  what  causes  the  rate  of  im- 
patience depends.  It  depends  principally  upon  two  circum- 
stances, the  character  of  the  individual  and  the  character  of 
the  income  of  which  he  finds  himself  the  owner. 

It  is  clear  that  the  rate  of  impatience  which  corresponds 
to  a specific  income-stream  will  not  be  the  same  for  every- 
body. One  man  may  have  a rate  of  impatience  of  5 per  cent 
and  another  a rate  of  imiiatience  of  10  jier  cent,  although 
both  have  the  same  income.  The  difterence  will  be  due  to 
the  personal  characteristics  of  the  individuals.  These  charac- 
teristics are  chiefly  five  in  number:  (1)  foresight,  (2)  self-con- 
trol, (3)  liabit,  (4)  expectation  of  life,  (5)  love  for  posterity.  We 
shall  take  these  up  in  order. 

1)  First,  as  to  foresight.  Generally  speaking,  the  greater 
the  foresight,  the  less  the  rate  of  impatience,  and  vice  versa. 
In  the  case  of  primitive  races  and  instructed  classes  of  so- 
ciety, the  future  is  seldom  considered  in  its  true  proportions. 
The  story  is  told  of  a Southern  negro  that  he  Avould  not 
mend  his  leaky  roof  when  it  was  raining,  for  fear  of  getting 
more  wet,  nor  when  it  was  not  raining,  because  he  did  not 
then  need  shelter.  Among  such  persons  the  rate  of  imi)atieiice 
for  present  gratification  is  powerful  because  their  comprehen- 
sion of  the  future  is  weak.  If  we  compare  the  Scotch  and 
the  Irish,  we  will  find  a contrast  in  this  respect.  The  Irish, 
in  general,  lack  foresight  and  are  improvident,  and  the  Scotch 
have  foresight  and  are  provident.  Consectuently  the  rate  of 
interest  is  high  in  Ireland  and  low  in  Scotland. 

These  differences  in  degrees  of  foresight  produce  corre- 
s] bonding  ditterences  in  the  dependence  of  impatience  on  the 
character  of  income.  Thus,  for  a given  income,  say  1000  dollars 


THE  ‘‘  IMPATIENCE  THEORY  „ OF  INTEREST  13- (390) 

a year,  the  reckless  might  have  a rate  of  imijatience  of  10  per 
cent,  when  the  forehanded  would  experience  a rate  of  only 
5 per  cent. 

Therefore  the  rate  of  impatience,  in  general,  will  be 
higher  in  a community  consisting  of  reckless  individuals  than 
in  one  consisting  of  the  opposite  type. 

2)  We  come  next  to  self-control.  This  trait,  though, 
distinct  from  foresight,  is  usually  associated  with  it  and  has 
very  similar  effects.  Foresight  has  to  do  with  thinking;  self- 
control  with  tvilling.  A weak  will  usually  goes  with  a weak 
intellect,  though  not  necessarily,  and  not  always.  The  effect 
of  a weak  will  is  similar  to  the  effect  of  inferior  foresight. 
Like  those  workingmen  who  cannot  carry  their  jiay  home  Sa- 
turday night,  but  spend  it  in  a grogshop  on  the  way,  many 
persons  cannot  deny  themselves  any  present  indulgence,  even 
when  they  know  definitely  what  the  consequences  will  be 
in  the  future.  Others,  on  the  contrary,  have  no  difficulty  in 
controlling  themselves  in  the  face  of  all  temptations. 

3)  The  third  characteristic  of  human  nature  which  needs 
to  be  considered  is  habit.  That  to  which  one  is  accustomed 
exerts  necessarily  a powerful  influence  upon  his  valuations 
and  therefore  upon  his  rate  of  impatience.  This  influence  may 
be  in  either  direction.  A rich  man’ s son  who  has  been  brought 
up  in  habits  of  self-indulgence,  when  he  finds  himself  with 
a smaller  income  than  his  father  provided  him  during  his 
formative  years,  will  have  a higher  rate  of  imi^atience  than 
a man  who  has  the  same  income  but  who  has  climbed  u]) 
instead  of  climbed  down. 

4)  The  expectation  of  life  will  affect  a man’s  rate  of 
impatience.  A man  who  looks  forward  to  a long  life  will  have 
a relatively  high  appreciation  of  the  future,  which  means  a re- 
latively low  appreciation  of  the  present,  i.  e.  a low  rate  of 
imi^atience;  whereas  a man  who  has  a short  life  to  look 
forward  to  will  want  it  at  least  to  be  a merry  one.  « Eat, 
drink,  and  be  merry,  for  to-morrow  we  die  »,  is  the  motto 
applying  to  this  type. 

5)  The  fifth  circumstance  is  love  for  posterity.  Proba- 
bly the  most  powerful  cause  tending  to  reduce  the  rate  of 
interest  is  love  for  one’ s children  and  the  desire  to  provide  for 
their  good.  When  these  sentiments  decay,  as  they  did  decay 
at  the  time  of  the  decline  and  fall  of  the  Eoman  Empire, 


T.  FISHER 


Rud  it  becomes  tlie  fashion  to  exhaust  wealth  in  self-indul- 
i»en('.e  and  leave  little  or  nothing  to  offsiiring,  the  rate  of 
impatience  and  the  rate  of  interest  are  high.  At  such  times 
the  motto  « After  us  the  deluge  »,  indicates  the  feverish  de- 
sire to  squander  in  the  present,  at  whatever  cost  to  the  fu- 
ture. A noted  gambler,  who  had  led  a wild  and  selfish  life, 
once  said,  when  life-insurance  was  first  explained  to  him. 
« I have  seen  many  schemes  for  making,  money,  but  this  is 
the  first  time  I have  seem  a scheme  where  you  had  to  die 
before  you  could  rake  in  the  pile  ».  That  man  didn’ t care  for 
a xiayment  which  would  come  in  after  his  death.  But  there 
are  many  men  who  do,  and  in  fact  care  much  more  for  it 
than  for  anything  else  in  the  world.  This  care  leads  them  to 
insure  their  lives  in  order  that  they  may  leave  the  money  to 
their  families.  Their  desire  to  provide  for  those  who  survive 
them  gives  them  a low  rate  of  impatience.  Life  insurance,  by 
training  people  to  iirovide  for  posterity,  is  acting  as  one  of 
the  most  iiowerful  means  of  lowering  the  rate  of  impatience 
and  therefore  the  rate  of  interest.  At  present  in  the  United 
States  the  insurance  on  lives  amounts  to  20,000,000,000  of  dollars. 
This  represents,  for  the  most  part,  an  investment  of  the 
present  generation  for  the  next.  The  investment  of  this  sum 
springs  out  of  a low  rate  of  impatience,  and  tends  to  jiro- 
diice  a low  rate  of  interest. 

^ Thus  we  see  that  men  may  ditter  in  many  ways  which 
aftect  tlie  rate  of  impatience  and  rate  of  interest.  We  may 
contrast  two  extreme  tyjies  of  men,  irrespective  of.  the  char- 
acter of  their  income.  Men  may  have  a high  rate  if  they  are 
shortsighted,  or  are  weak-willed,  or  have  spendthrift  habits 
or  look  forward  to  a short  or  uncertain  life,  or  are  selfisli 
and  without  regard  for  posterity.  They  will  have  a low  rate  if 
they  liave  the  opposite  characteristics,  — foresight,  self-control, 
habits  of  thrift,  length  and  certainty  of  life,  and  altruism 
with  respect  to  posterity. 

But  not  only  does  impatience  vary  as  between  difterent 
individuals;  it  varies  also  for  the  same  individual  according 
to  circumstances.  The  most  important  circumstance  affecting 
an  individuar  s degree  of  impatience  is  the  character  of  his 
ex])ected  income  in  the  immediate  and  in  the  remote  future, 

Smith’ s impatience  for  satisfactions  will  depend  on  the 
abundance  of  his  present  as  compared  with  his  future  satis- 


THE  “IMPATIENCE  THEORY,,  OF  INTEREST  15- (892) 

factions.  If  the  future  satisfactions  that  he  expects  and  looks 
forward  to  are  very  great,  and  his  iiresent  satisfactions  are 
very  small,  he  will  be  impatient  to  hurry  from  his  present 
scarcity  and  arrive  at  the  expected  future  abundance;  that 
is,  he  will  have  a high  rate  of  iireference  for  present  over 
future  satisfactions.  This  is  on  the  same  principle  that  jirices 
are  high  when  goods  are  scarce.  The  preference  for  present 
satisfactions  is  high  if  present  satisfactions  are  scarce.  Now  the 
rate  of  preference  which  Smith  has  for  present  satisfactions 
over  future  satisfactions  will  depend  on  his  whole  future 
stream  of  satisfactions,  that  is,  what  we  call  his  final  enjoyable 
income.  It  will  depend  on  four  chief  characteristics  of  that 
income:  first,  as  just  said,  it  will  depend  on  the  time-shape 
of  the  income,  the  relative  abundance  of  his  present  and  his 
future  satisfactions;  second,  on  the  amount  of  the  income,  i. 
e.  whether  his  satisfactions  are  few  or  many;  third,  on  the 
uncertainties  of  the  income,  i.  e.  to  what  extent  his  satisfac- 
tions throughout  future  years  can  be  depended  upon;  and 
fourth,  on  the  composition  of  the  income,  i.  e.  the  relative 
amounts  of  foods,  shelter,  etc.,  of  which  it  is  composed. 

For  brevity  we  shall  here  consider  only  the  time-shape  of 
income,  i.  e.  the  divstribution  of  income  in  time.  Three  difier- 
ent  types  of  time-shape  may  be  distinguished:  uniform  in- 
come, consisting  of  equal  yearly  items,  income  increasing  in 
the  future,  and  income  decreasing  in  the  future. 

The  effect  of  possessing  an  increasing  income  is,  as  we 
liave  already  indicated,  to  make  the  possessor  impatient,  i.  e. 
to  make  his  xi reference  for  jiresent  over  future  income  higher 
than  otherwise;  for  it  means  that  the  earlier  jiarts  of  his 
income  are  relatively  scarce,  and  the  remoter,  relatively 
abundant.  For  instance,  a man  who  is  now  enjoying  an  in- 
come of  only  1000  dollars  a year,  but  exjiects  in  ten  years  to  be 
enjoying  one  of  10,000  dollars  a year,  will  be  imiiatient  to  have 
ten  years  elaiise.  He  has  « great  expectations  ».  He  may,  to  sa- 
tisfy his  impatience,  borrow  money  to  eke  out  this  year’ s in- 
come, and  make  rexiayment  by  sacrificing  from  his  more 
abundant  income  ten  years  later. 

Eeversely,  a decreasing  income,  making,  as  it  does,  the 
earlier  income  relatively  abundant,  and  the  remoter  incomes 
relatively  scarce,  tends  to  reduce  impatience,  or  tlie  prefer- 
ence for  present  as  comxiared  with  future  income.  The  man 


H)-(393) 


I.  FISHER 


with  a desceuding  income  already  has  a high  income  without 
being  compelled  to  wait  for  it.  With  him  there  is  little 
reason  for  impatience;  there  is  nothing  to  be  impatient  for; 
on  the  contrary,  the  tuture  does  not  look  at  all  inviting.  He 
will  therefore  strive  to  save  from  his  present  abundance  to 
provide  for  coming  needs. 


V.  The  determination  of  the  Rate  of  Interest. 

The  question  now  arises,  will  not  the  rates  of  impatience 
of  dilferent  individuals  be  very  different,  and  if  so,  what  re- 
lation do  these  different  rates  have  to  the  rate  of  interest? 
It  might  seem  at  first  that  the  rates  of  impatience  would 
differ  widely.  In  a nation  of  hermits,  without  any  mutual 
lending  and  borrowing,  this  would  be  true;  the  rate  of  impa- 
tience of  individuals  would  diverge  widely,  and  there  would 
be  no  common  market  rate  of  interest.  It  is  modern  society’s 
habit  of  borrowing  and  lending  that  tends  to  bring  into 
equality  the  rates  of  impatience  in  different  minds,  and  it  is 
only  because  of  the  limitations  of  the  loan  market  that  abso- 
lute equality  is  not  reached. 

The  chief  practical  limitation  to  lending  is  due  to  the 
risk  involved,  and  to  the  difficulty  or  impossibility  of  obtain- 
ing the  security  necessary  to  eliminate  or  reduce  that  risk. 
Those  who  are  most  willing  to  borrow  are  oftentimes  those 
who  are  least  able  to  give  security.  It  will  then  happen  that 
these  persons,  shut  off*  from  the  loan  market,  experience  a 
higher  rate  of  impatience  than  the  rate  of  interest  ruling  in 
that  market.  If  they  can  contract  loans  at  all,  it  will  be 
only  through  the  pawnshop  or  other  high -rate  agencies. 

But  for  the  moment  let  us  assume  a perfect  market, 
in  which  the  element  of  risk  is  entirely  lacking.  We  assume 
that  all  individuals  are  initially  possessed  of  fore -known  in- 
come streams,  and  are  free  to  exchange  any  parts  of  them 
vso  that  present  income  may  be  exchanged  for  future  income. 
This  exchange  may  be  effected  by  borrowing  or  lending,  by 
buying  and  selling  Avealth  or  property  and  by  changing  tlie 
uses  to  Avhich  capital  is  put. 

Under  these  conditions,  the  rates  of  impatience  for  dif- 
ferent individuals  Avill  be  perfectly  equalized.  BorroAving  and 


THE  ‘‘IMPATIENCE  THEOEY  „ OP  INTEKEST  lT-(394) 

lending'  evidently  affect  the  time-shape  of  the  incomes  of 
borrower  and  lender;  and  since  the  time-shape  of  their  in- 
comes affects  their  rate  of  impatience,  sucli  a moditication  of 
time-shape  will  react  iiijon  and  modify  their  rate  of  impa- 
tience and  bring  the  market  into  equilibrium. 

For  if,  for  any  iiarticnlar  individual,  the  rate  of  impa- 
tience differs  from  the  market  rate,  he  will,  if  he  can,  adjust 
the  time-shape  of  his  income -stream  so  as  to  harmonize  his 
rate  of  impatience  with  the  interest  rate.  For  instance,  those 
who,  for  a given  income-stream,  have  a rate  of  impatience 
above  the  market  rate,  will  sell  some  of  their  surx)lus  future 
income  to  obtain  (i.  e.  « borrow  »)  an  addition  to  their  pre- 
sent meagre  income.  This  will  have  the  effect  of  enhancing  the 
value  of  the  future  income  and  decreasing  that  of  the  pre- 
sent. The  process  will  continue  until  the  rate  of  impatience 
of  this  individual  is  equal  to  the  rate  of  interest.  In  other 
words,  a person  whose  impatience- rate  exceeds  the  current 
rate  of  interest  will  borrow  up  to  the  point  which  will  make 
the  two  rates  equal.  Eeversely,  those  who,  with  a given  in- 
come-stream, have  a rate  of  impatience  below  the  market 
rate,  will  sell  (i.  e.  « lend  »)  some  of  their  abundant  j) resent 
income  to  eke  out  the  future,  the  effect  being  to  increase 
their  rate  of  impatience  until  it  also  harmonizes  Avith  the 
rate  of  interest. 

To  put  the  matter  in  figures,  let  us  suppose  the  rate  of 
interest  is  5 per  cent,  whereas  the  rate  of  impatience  of  a 
particular  individual  is  at  first  10  per  cent.  Then,  by  hypo- 
thesis, the  individual  is  ivilUng  to  sacrifice  1.10  of  next  year’s 
income  in  exchange  for  1 dollar  of  this  year’ s.  But  in  the 
market  he  is  ahle  to  obtain  1 dollar  for  this  year  by  spending 
only  1.05  of  next  year.  This  ratio  is,  to  him,  a cheap  price. 
He  therefore  borrows,  say,  100  dollars  for  a year,  agreeing 
to  return  105  dollars;  that  is,  he  contracts  a loan  at  5 per 
cent  M^hen  he  is  willing  to  pay  10  per  cent.  This  loan,  by 
increasing  his  iiresent  income  and  decreasing  his  future,  tends 
to  reduce  his  rate  of  impatience  from  10  per  cent  to,  say, 
8 per  cent. 

Under  these  circumstances  he  will  borroAv  another  100 
dollars  being  now  willing  to  iiay  8 per  cent,  but  having  to  pay 
only  5 per  cent.  This  loan  will  still  further  reduce  his  rate 
of  impatience.  He  will  continue  to  borrow  until  his  rate  of 


18- (395) 


I.  FISHER 


impatience  lias  been  tinally  brought  down  to  5 per  cent.  Then 
for  the  last  or  « marginal » 100  dollars,  his  rate  of  impatience  will 
agree  with  the  market  rate  of  interest.  As  in  the  general 
theory  of  prices,  this  marginal  rate,  5 per  cent,  being  once 
established,  applies  indifferently  to  all  his  valuations  of  pre- 
sent and  future  income. 

In  like  manner,  if  another  individual,  entering  the  loan 
market  from  the  other  side,  has  at  first  a rate  of  impatience 
of  2 per  cent,  he  will  become  a lender  instead  of  a borrower. 
He  is  willing  to  accept  102  dollars  of  next  year’ s income  for 
100  of  this  year’s  income,  but  in  the  market  he  is  cible^  instead 
of  the  102  dollars,  to  get  105.  As  he  can  lend  at  5 iier  cent  when  he 
Avould  gladly  do  so  at  2 per  cent,  he  jumps  at  the  chance  and 
invests,  not  one  100  dollars  only,  but  another  and  another.  But 
his  present  income,  being  reduced  by  the  process,  is  now  more 
highly  esteemed  than  before,  and  his  future  income,  being- 
increased,  is  less  highly  esteemed.  The  result  will  be  a higher 
relative  valuation  of  the  present,  which,  under  the  infiuence 
of  successive  additions  to  the  sums  lent,  will  rise  gradually 
to  the  level  of  the  market  rate  of  interest. 

In  such  an  ideal  loan  market,  therefore,  where  every  in- 
dividual could  freely  borrow  or  lend,  the  rates  of  impatience 
for  all  the  different  individuals  would  become  equal  to  each 
other  and  to  the  rate  of  interest. 

The  two  men  whom  we  have  imagined  started  out  Avitli 
rates  of  impatience  different  from  the  market  rate  of  inte- 
rest. The  market  rate  ivas  5 per  cent,  while  the  first  man  had 
a rate  of  impatience  above  this,  and  the  second,  a rate  of 
impatience  below  this.  But  Avlien  they  finished  their  loan 
o[)erations  or  readjustments  in  the  time- shape  of  their  in- 
come-streams, they  brought  their  rates  of  impatience  each 
into  harmony  with  the  rate  of  interest  and  therefore  with 
each  other.  Therefore,  as  long  as  there  is  a market  in  which 
everybody  can  borrow  or  lend  at  aauII  at  5 per  cent,  every- 
body Avill  have  at  the  margin  a rate  of  impatience  of  5 per  cent. 
Nobody  will  have  a rate  of  impatience  above  5 per  cent, 
because,  if  it  is  at  first  above  it,  he  will  borrow  enough  to 
bring  it  down  to  the  market  rate;  and  nobody  AAill  have  a 
rate  below  it,  because  if  it  is  at  first  below  it,  he  Avill  lend 
enough  to  bring  it  up  to  the  rate  of  interest. 

Thus  we  see  that  even  men  of  widely  difierent  natures 


THE  IMPATIENCE  THEORY  „ OP  INTEREST  19 -(396) 

V as  to  foresight,  self-control,  etc.,  will  have  the  same  marginal 
rates  of  impatience.  This  adjustment  of  the  impatience  of 
different  individuals  takes  place,  as  we  have  seen,  by  adjusting 
their  respective  incomes^  increasing  their  immediate  income  at 
the  expense  of  future  income  or  increasing  their  future  income  at 
the  expense  of  immediate  income.  These  changes  in  income  we 
have  supposed,  for  illustration,  to  be  effected  by  borrowing  and 
lending.  As  a matter  of  fact  they  may  also  take  place  in  two 
other  ways.  One  way  is  by,  buying  and  selling  property.  If 
a man  buys  property  like  a growing  forest,  which  will  bring 
him  remotely  future  income  and  sells  property,  like  household 
furniture,  or  short-time  notes  which  brings  him  more  imme- 
diate income  it  is  clear  that  he  can  profoundly  change  the 
character  of  his  present  and  future  income.  The  other  way 
is  by  changing  the  uses  to  which  he  imts  his  capital,  e.  g. 
changing  the  use  of  land  from  growing  immediate  crops  to 
growing  timber  in  the  remote  future.  But  whether  he  modi- 
fies this  income  by  borrowing  and  lending,  or  by  buying  and 
selling,  or  by  changing  the  uses  of  his  cajiital,  the  essential 
point  is  that  he  does  modify  its  time-shape  and  by  so  doing- 
raises  or  lowers  his  rate  of  impatience  so  as  to  make  it 
agree  with  the  market  rate  of  interest.  For  the  individual 
the  rate  of  interest  is  a relatively  fixed  fact,  since  his 
own  rate  of  impatience  and  resulting  action  can  affect  it 
only  infinitesimally.  All  he  can  do  is  to  adjust  his  rate  of 
imjiatience  to  it.  For  society  as  a whole,  however,  it  is  these\ 
same  rates  of  impatience  which  meet  in,  and  determine,  the  rate/ 
of  interest.  While  for  the  individual  the  rate  of  interestj 
determines  the  rate  of  impatience,  for  society  the  rates  otj 
impatience  of  the  individuals  determine  the  rate  of  interest' 
The  rate  of  interest  is  simply  the  rate  of  impatience,  upon 
which  the  whole  community  may  concur  in  order  that  the  mar- 
ket of  loans  may  be  exactly  cleared.  Supply  and  demand 
will  work  this  out. 

To  put  the  matter  in  figures:  if  the  rate  of  interest  is 
set  very  high,  say  20  per  cent,  there  will  be  relatively  few 
borrowers  and  many  would-be  lenders,  so  that  the  total  extent 
to  which  would-be  lenders  are  willing  to  reduce  their  income- 
streams  for  the  present  year  for  the  sake  of  a much  larger 
future  income  will  be,  say  100,000,000  of  dollars;  whereas, 
those  who  are  willing  to  add  to  their  present  income  at  the 


I.  FISHt:R 


high  price  of  20  ])er  cent  interest  will  borrow  only,  say, 
1,000,000  of  dollars.  Under  such  conditions  the  demand  for 
loans  is  far  short  of  the  siii)ply,  and  the  rate  of  interest 
Avill  therefore  go  down.  At  an  interest  rate  of  10  per  cent, 
tlie  present  year’ s income  offered  as  loans  might  be  50,000,000 
of  dollars,  and  the  amount  which  Avould  be  taken  at  that  rate 
only  20,000,000  of  dollars.  There  is  still  an  excess  of  supply 
over  demand,  and  interest  must  needs  fall  further.  At  5 per 
cent  Ave  may  suppose  the  market  cleared,  borroAvers  and 
lenders  being  Avilling  to  take  or  giA^e  respectiA^ely  30,000,000 
of  dollars.  In  like  manner  it  can  be  shoAAm  that  the  rate 
AYOuld  not  fall  beloAV  this,  as  in  that  case  it  would  result 
in  an  excess  of  demand  OA^er  supply,  and  cause  the  rate  to 
rise  again. 

Thus  the  rate  of  interest  is  the  common  market  rate  of 
impatience  for  income,  as  determined  by  the  supply  and 
demand  of  present  and  future  income.  Those  who,  haAung  a 
high  rate  of  impatience,  striA^e  to  acquire  more  present  income, 
at  the  cost  of  future  income,  tend  to  raise  the  rate  of  interest. 
These  are  the  borrowers,  the  spenders,  the  sellers  of  property 
yielding  remote  income,  such  as  bonds  and  stocks.  On  the 
other  hand,  those  Avho  — having  a Ioav  rate  of  impatience  — 
strUe  to  acquire  more  future  income  at  the  cost  of  present 
income,  tend  to  loAver  the  rate  of  interest.  These  are  the 
lenders,  the  saA^ers,  the  iiiA^estors. 


VI.  Verification  and  Conclusion, 

We  have  sketched  the  main  principles  determining  the 
rate  of  interest.  Some  have  not  been  mentioned  sav^e  by  impli- 
cation. In  summary  Ave  may  say  the  rate  of  interest,  consi- 
dered independently  of  fluctuations  in  the  monetary  standard, 
is  determined  by  six  conditions.  Those  which  we  have  here 
considered  and  explained  are  the  folloAving  three:  (1)  the 
dependence  of  impatience  ui>on  prospectUe  income  — its  size, 
shai^e,  composition,  and  uncertainties ; (2)  the  tendency  of  rates 
of  impatience  for  different  indiAuduals  to  become  equal  to 
each  other  and  to  the  rate  of  interest,  through  the  loan  market ; 
(3)  the  fact  that  supply  and  demand  must  be  equal  so  that 
the  modifications  in  the  income-streams  of  individuals,  through 


THE  IMPATIENCE  THEORY  „ OF  INTEREST  21 -(398) 

buying  and  selling,  or  borrowing  and  lending,  must  « clear 
the  market.  » Of  the  other  three  determining  conditions  the 
most  important  is  that  the  rate  of  interest  must  be  equal  not 
only  to  the  marginal  rates  of  impatience  but  also  to  the 
« marginal  rates  of  return  on  sacrifice  ».  This,  though  a fund- 
amental and  distinctive  feature  in  my  theory  of  interest 
cannot  adequately  be  presented  in  this  short  sketch.  It  is 
fully  elaborated  in  the  « Eate  of  Interest ».  It  is  there  shown 
that  this  principle  — that  rates  of  return  on  sacrifice  har- 
monize with  the  rate  of  interest  — may  also  be  stated  in  the 
following  form:  of  all  the  optional  uses  to  which  a man 
may  put  his  capital  he  will  choose  that  one  which  at  the 
market  rate  of  interest  maximizes  the  present  value  of  his 
capital  — the  discounted  value  of  the  uses  chosen. 

The  remaining  two  conditions  are  the  very  obvious  ones; 
(1)  that  what  is  borrowed  at  any  time  by  some  persons,  equals 
what  is  loaned  at  that  time  by  other  persons  and  (2)  that 
what  any  i^erson  borrows  at  one  time  must  be  repaid  by  that 
person  at  another  time  Avith  interest  at  the  market  rate. 

These  six  determining  conditions  are  all  essential.  If  any 
one  of  them  is  omitted  we  shall  find  ourseh^es  trying  to  deter- 
mine the  unknown  quantity,  the  rate  of  interest,  by  means 
of  other  unknown  quantities  — rates  of  impatience,  rates  of 
return  on  sacrifice,  amount  of  loans  and  incomes  — without 
providing  adequate  means  for  determining  these  other  unknown 
(juantities  also.  This  is  the  difficulty  with  most  theories  of  inter- 
est, the  atteinjit  to  explain  ignotum  per  ignotiiis.  There  is  no 
objection  to  explaining  one  unknoAvn  in  terms  of  others  pro- 
vided only  we  furnish  enough  determining  conditions  for  all. 
It  is  a fundamental  law  of  algebra  that  in  order  to  deter- 
mine fully  each  one  of  the  unknowns  we  must  have  an  exactly 
equal  number  of  indei>endent  equations.  As  is  shown  in  « The 
Eate  of  Interest  »,  the  six  sets  of  determining  conditions  above 
mentioned  provide  exactly  the  number  of  equations  needful 
to  determine  all  the  unknown  quantities  invoh-ed  in  them 
including  the  rate  of  interest  itself. 

We  have  now  completed  our  study  of  the  causes  deter- 
mining the  rate  of  interest.  If  they  are  correct,  we  should 
find  that  the  rate  of  interest  is  low  (1)  if  in  general  the  iieople 
are  by  nature  thrifty,  far-sighted,  self-controlled,  and  loA^e 
their  children,  or  (2)  if  they  haA^e  large  or  descending  income- 


22-(399) 


I.  3^'ISHEE 


streams;  aud  that  it  is  high  (1)  if  the  ijeople  are  shiftless, 
short-sighted,  impulsive,  selfish,  or  (2)  if  they  have  small  or 
ascending  income-streams. 

History  shows  that  the  facts  accord  with  these  conclu- 
sions. The  communities  and  nationalities  which  are  most  noted 
for  the  qualities  mentioned  — foresight,  self-control,  and  regard 
for  posterity  — are  probably  Holland,  Scotland,  England,  France. 
Among  these  people  interest  has  been  low.  Moreover,  they 
have  been  money  lenders;  they  have  the  habit  of  thrift  or 
accumulation,  and  their  instruments  of  wealth  are  in  general 
of  a durable  kind. 

On  the  other  hand,  among  communities  and  peoples  noted 
for  lack  of  foresight  and  for  negligence  with  respect  to  the 
future  are  China,  India,  Java,  the  negro  communities  in  the 
Southern  states,  the  peasant  communities  of  Eussia,  and  the 
North  and  South  American  Indians,  both  before  and  after  they 
had  been  pushed  to  the  wall  by  the  white  men.  In  all  of 
these  communities  we  find  that  interest  is  high,  that  there 
is  a tendency  to  run  into  debt  and  to  dissipate  rather  than 
to  accumulate  capital,  and  that  their  dwellings  and  other  instru- 
ments are  of  a very  fiimsy  and  perishable  character,  built  for 
immediate,  not  remote,  gratification.  This  is  true  even  where, 
as  in  China,  the  people  are  industrious.  Industry  without 
patience  will  work  only  for  immediate  gratification. 

These  examples  illustrate  the  effect  on  the  rate  of  interest 
of  differences  in  human  nature.  We  now  turn  to  illustrations 
of  differences  in  the  time-shape  of  incomes.  The  most  striking 
examples  of  increasing  income -streams  are  found  in  new 
countries.  It  may  be  said  that  the  United  States  has  almost 
always  belonged  to  this  category.  In  America  we  see  exem- 
X)lified  on  a very  large  scale  the  truth  of  the  theory  that  a 
rising  income-stream  raises,  and  a falling  income-stream  de- 
presses, the  rate  of  interest,  or  that  these  conformations  of 
the  income- stream  work  out  their  efiects  in  other  equivalent 
forms.  A similar  causation  may  be  seen  in  particular  locali- 
ties in  the  United  States,  especially  where  clianges  have 
been  rapid,  as  in  mining  communities.  In  California,  in  the 
two  decades  between  1850  and  1870,  following  the  discovery 
of  gold,  the  income-stream  of  that  state  was  increasing  at  a 
prodigious  rate.  Huriug  this  period  the  rates  of  interest  were 
abnormally  high.  The  current  rates  in  the  « early  days  » were 


THE  IMPATIENCE  THEORY  „ OP  INTEREST  23 -(400) 

quoted  at  1 ‘4  to  2 per  cent  a month.  « The  thrifty  Michael 
Eeese  is  said  to  have  half  repented  of  a generous  gift  to  the 
University  of  California,  with  the  exclamation  : « Ah,  but  I 
lose  the  interest  » — a very  natural  regret  when  interest  was 
24  per  cent  per  annum  ».  After  railway  connection  in  1869, 
Eastern  loans  began  to  flow  in.  The  decade  1870-1880  was 
one  of  transition  during  which  the  phenomenon  of  high  interest 
was  gradually  replaced  by  the  phenomenon  of  borrowing 
from  outside.  The  residents  of  California  were  thus  able  to 
change  the  time-shape  of  their  income-streams.  The  rate  of 
interest  consequently  dropped  from  11  per  cent  to  6 per  cent. 

The  same  phenomena  of  enormous  interest  rates  were 
also  exemplified  in  Colorado  and  the  Klondike.  There  were 
many  instances  in  both  these  places  during  the  transition 
period  from  poverty  to  affluence,  when  loans  were  contracted 
at  over  50  per  cent  per  annum,  and  the  borrowers  regarded 
themselves  as  lucky  to  get  rates  so  « low.  » 

We  have  seen  that  the  rate  of  interest  is  not  a mere 
technical  phenomenon,  restricted  to  Wall  Street  and  other 
« money  markets,  » but  that  it  permeates  all  economic  rela- 
tion. It  is  the  link  which  binds  man  to  the  future  and  by 
which  he  makes  all  his  far-reaching  decisions.  It  enters  into 
the  price  of  securities,  land,  and  capital  goods  generally,  as 
well  as  into  rent  and  wages. 

The  rate  of  interest  also  plays  a central  role  in  the  theory 
of  distribution.  The  true  problem  of  distribution  is  that  of 
determining  the  amounts  of  capital  and  income  possessed  by 
different  individuals  in  society.  Individuals  of  the  spendthrift 
type,  if  in  possession  of  land  and  other  durable  instruments, 
will  either  sell  or  mortgage  them  in  order  to  secure  the  mean^ 
for  obtaining  enjoyable  services  more  rapidly.  The  effect  will 
be,  for  society  as  a whole,  that  those  individuals  who  have 
an  abnormally  low  appreciation  of  the  future  and  its  needs 
will  gradually  part  with  the  more  durable  instruments,  and 
that  these  will  tend  to  gravitate  into  the  hands  of  those  who 
liave  the  opposite  trait.  By  this  transfer  and  inequality  in  the 
distribution  of  capital  is  gradually  effected,  an  this  inequa- 
lity, once  achieved,  tends  to  perpetuate  itself.  Hence,  in  some 
countries  the  rich  and  poor  come  to  be  widely  and  perma- 
nently separated,  the  former  constituting  a hereditary  aristo- 
cracy and  the  latter  a helpless  and  degraded  peasantry. 


‘24-(4()l) 


I.  FISHER 


We  see,  therefore,  that  the  rate  of  interest  is  of  almost 
universal  application  and  importance  in  economic  relations. 
It  concerns  not  only  the  phenomena  of  borrowing  and  lend- 
ing but  of  buying  and  selling.  It  enters  implicitly  into  prices. 
It  affects  distribution.  It  cannot  be  abolished  by  law  nor  by 
any  other  means  unless  human  impatience  be  abolished. 

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A.  VITTOEIO  VECCHI  - (Jack  La  Bolina) 


LA  VITA  E LE  GESTE  DI  G.  GARIBALDI 

0.  AUGUSTO  VECCHI 


GARIBALDI  E CAPRERA 

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BIBLIOTECA  DI  COLTDRA  POPOLARE 

Diretta  da  GUIDO  BIAGI 


Volumi  in  vendita: 


Barboni  prof.  Leopoldo  - Pagine  divertenti,  Bozzetti  e No- 

velle 

Legato  in  tela 

Boschetti  Elisa  - La  Benejicenza  com^  e e come  deve  essere 

Legato  in  tela 

Cabrini  on.  Angelo  - Emigrazione  ed  Emigranti,  Manuale. 

Legato  in  tela , . 

Cardini  prof.  Massimiliano  - L’uomo  quaVe.  Con  65  figure. 

Legato  in  tela 

Castellini  Gualtiero  - Eroi  Garibaldtni.  Parte  I.  Da  Rio 
Grande  a Palermo.  Con  16  ritrattti.  Legato  in  tela  . . 

Parte  II.  Da  Palermo  a Digione.  Con  16  ritratti.  Legato  in  tela 
Giannitrapani  capitano  Luigi  - Le  grandi  comunicazioni  di 
terra  e di  mare.  Con  tre  carte  a colori.  Legato  in  tela. 
PiccOLi  dott.  Ettore  - U alimentazione  delV  uomo . . . . 

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Rizzatti  prof.  Francesco  - L' Umbria  verde  - I.  Perugia  . 

Legato  in  tela  

ScHiAVi  dott.  Alessandro  - Le  Case  a buon  mercato  e le 
Cittd  giardino.  Con  75  figure.  Legato  in  tela  . . . . 

Valentini  ing.  Carlo  - La  Navigazione  interna  in  Italia 
e alV  ester o.  Con  26  figure.  Legato  in  tela  . . . . . 

Vecchj  a.  V.  (Jack  La  Bolina)  - II  mare  d’ Italia,  i suoi 
prodotti  e la  sua  riccliezza.  Legato  in  tela 


L.  2 — 
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» 3,- 

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^ 2,50 


D* imminente  pubblicazione: 

Checchi  Eugenio  - Come  si  e fatta  V Italia. 

Gioli  dott.  Giuseppe  - La  caccia  buona  e la  caccia  dannosa. 
Melpa  dott.  C.  - Come  si  fa  il  commerciante. 

Provenzal  Dino  - Usanze  e feste  del  popolo  italiano. 

Pucci  dott.  Angiolo  - UIgiene  delle  piante, 

PucciONi  dott.  Nello  - Garibaldi  nella  poesia. 

Vecchj  A.  V.  (Jack  la  Bolina)  - Nel  grembo  del  mare. 
Vettori  prof.  BICE  - Eroi  delVantichitd. 

Come  si  fanno  e si  riparano  le  calzature. 


Ricliirdere  alP  Editore,  die  iie  fara  invio  gratis,  il  Catalogo  della  Biblioteca 
coil  iiidice  dei  volumi  e coudizioiii  speeiali. 


Libreria  Editrice  Nicola  Zanichelli  - Bologna 


Prciiiiato  <lair  Accaclemia  clei  Liiicei 

LUIGI  CAECERERI 

IL  OONCILIO  DI  TRENTO 

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IL  COMUNE  D IMOLA 

NEL  SECOLO  XII 

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PARTE  IL  - Istituzioni  e vicende  del  Comune  d’  Imola  nel  secolo  XII 

(1130-1159) 

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